Almonty's $300 Million Buyback Meets a $12 Spread on Wall Street
Published on 09/26/2026 at 05:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two of the world's most closely watched investment banks have staked out sharply divergent positions on Almonty Industries, and the gap between them is hard to miss. Stifel initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $25.00 price target, while Goldman Sachs opened its own coverage on Thursday with a Neutral call and a $13.00 objective. The $12 spread underscores how differently the market's biggest houses read the tungsten miner's expansion story.
Behind the split lies a market that has been turned on its head. According to Stifel analyst Brock Cannon, China accounted for roughly 80% of global mine production in 2025 and controlled about 85% of downstream ammonium paratungstate refining capacity. Once Beijing introduced export controls, prices for the industrial metal surged approximately 775% from the start of 2025. Industrial and defense buyers outside China have since been scrambling for dependable supply — a search that has put Almonty squarely in the spotlight, alongside existing coverage from houses such as Jefferies.
Sangdong Restarts After Three Decades
The operational backdrop to those ratings is a mine coming back to life. Almonty confirmed Wednesday that tungsten had been extracted at its Sangdong site for the first time since 1993. Two days earlier, the company reported that its processing and crushing facilities had secured final operating certificates, clearing the way for commercial production and the sale of tungsten concentrate. More than 90% of first-phase output is already locked up under contract, according to company statements.
Sangdong's Phase I commercial production is now underway. A planned second phase would nearly double annual ore throughput to 1.2 million tonnes in 2027. In Cannon's assessment, a fully built-out Sangdong could cover around 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Portugal forms the other pillar of the strategy. Almonty is pushing capacity growth at its Panasqueira mine, where rising yields are central to Stifel's thesis that the combination with Sangdong could make the company the leading Western tungsten producer by the end of 2028. Management sees additional upside in a planned tungsten oxide facility.
Spanish Tailings Deal and Rwanda Venture Widen the Map
Beyond its two flagship mines, Almonty has been stitching together supply lines outside dominant producing nations. On September 17, it signed a multi-year offtake agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik subsidiary, covering the processing of tailings material from the Los Santos mine. The deal carries a guaranteed minimum volume of roughly 1,720 tonnes of contained tungsten trioxide and includes a conditional advance payment of US$3.0 million, adding visibility to future cash flows. That agreement followed by more than a month a tungsten joint venture in Rwanda.
Buyback Adds a Capital Markets Signal
The board has also moved on the capital structure, authorizing a share repurchase program of up to $300 million. The plan permits the buyback of as many as 14.4 million of the company's own shares over a 36-month window.
Shares Climb as Implementation Risks Linger
Investors greeted the operational momentum with enthusiasm. The stock rose 11% in Friday's European session to close at EUR 12.09, bringing its year-to-date gain to 52%. Market capitalization now stands at roughly EUR 2.74 billion. Even so, more cautious voices on the sell side continue to flag execution risk across the company's ongoing expansion projects. Whether Stifel's bullish case materializes now rests largely on how smoothly commercial production ramps up.
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