Almonty's 46% Slide From Peak Exposes a Widening Split on Tungsten's Future
Published on 09/24/2026 at 17:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two very different pictures of Almonty Industries are now trading side by side. One camp sees a critical piece of the West's tungsten supply chain finally switching on; the other sees a stock that has already banked that promise and then some. The gap between those views has rarely been wider.
At the heart of the disagreement is Sangdong, the South Korean mine that Almonty brought into commercial tungsten production roughly a week ago after securing the last operating certificates for ore processing and concentrate sales. That milestone followed a furious run in tungsten prices since the start of 2025, a rally that has turned the strategic industrial metal into one of the market's hottest themes.
Two price targets, one stock
Wall Street's estimates have fanned out dramatically. D.A. Davidson stands at the bullish end, reiterating a buy rating with a $33.00 target and pointing to Almonty's outsize role in building Western supply chains for a metal that is indispensable to hardmetals and defense equipment. China currently controls roughly 80% of global supply, while the United States will impose restrictions on military procurement from certain countries of origin beginning in 2027.
Goldman Sachs takes the opposite tack. Analyst Nick Cash rates the shares neutral with a $13.00 target, arguing that much of the future earnings potential is already reflected in the price. The bank also expects tungsten prices to normalize over the medium term once additional mine supply, recycling capacity and expanded refineries reach the market. On top of that, Goldman flags that the ramp-up at Sangdong is proceeding more slowly than optimistic market expectations had assumed. Other houses sit between the two poles, with average targets holding around $24.00.
Operations and the balance sheet
Whatever the valuation debate, the company has logged tangible operational progress. Second-quarter revenue jumped 498% year over year to C$43.0 million. In June, Almonty closed an $800 million convertible bond, adding financial firepower, and cash stood at C$1.2 billion at last report.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The production base is expanding on several fronts. Alongside Sangdong, Almonty signed a long-term supply agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik Group subsidiary, covering the reprocessing of tailings at the Los Santos mine in western Spain. The deal uses a take-or-pay structure and carries a $3.0 million prepayment for offtake rights, with at least about 1,720 tonnes of contained WO? contractually covered.
In East Africa, the group is widening its reach through a partnership in which the state takes a 25% stake in subsidiary Almonty Rwanda Pty Ltd. In return, the government transfers the Shyorongi exploration concession and an ore processing license to the joint venture, giving the company additional mining resources on the African continent and diversifying its asset base against future supply risks.
Buyback and valuation
On the capital markets side, the board authorized a share buyback program for 2026 more than a month ago. The resolution permits the repurchase of up to 14,400,000 common shares for a total of up to $300,000,000 — roughly 5% of the outstanding shares.
All of this is unfolding against a backdrop of elevated valuation. At a current price of EUR 11.96, the commodities company carries a market capitalization of EUR 2.73 billion. The shares have gained 51% since the start of the year.
Profit-taking in Europe
In European trading, the more cautious voices have triggered profit-taking. The stock currently trades at EUR 11.12, a daily loss of 7.1%. After the strong gains of previous months, the shares have now pulled back 46% from their 52-week high.
Whether Almonty can revisit those earlier peaks will likely hinge on how quickly commercial delivery volumes from South Korea can actually be scaled. The coming quarterly reports will document whether the production processes and supply agreements now under way can hold earnings power at the targeted level.
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