Almonty's Buyback, Buy Rating and the Tungsten Squeeze Behind Them
Published on 09/26/2026 at 08:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has rarely been short of attention, but the past week delivered a rare combination: a fresh bullish endorsement from Stifel Nicolaus, a more guarded debut from Goldman Sachs, and a capital-return programme that puts real money behind management's confidence.
Stifel analyst Brock Cannon initiated coverage on Friday with a Buy rating and a US$25.00 price target, a call that immediately rippled through the German session. The stock jumped 11% on the day and closed at EUR 12.09. Reuters and other outlets pointed to the initiation as the main catalyst, though the enthusiasm is far from universal — Goldman Sachs had already stepped in on Thursday with a Neutral rating and a US$13.00 target, arguing that market expectations for tungsten prices and the ramp-up timeline at the Sangdong mine look ambitious.
A market shaped by scarcity
The split verdicts land against a backdrop of extraordinary tightness in tungsten. According to Cannon's research, China accounted for roughly 80% of global mine output in 2025 and controlled about 85% of downstream ammonium paratungstate refining capacity. Since Beijing introduced export controls, prices for the industrial metal have surged around 775% from the start of 2025.
That squeeze has sent industrial and defence buyers hunting for dependable supply outside China — precisely the gap Almonty is positioning itself to fill. The company's Sangdong operation in South Korea entered Phase I commercial production just over a week ago, with Korean authorities granting the operating certificates for the processing and crushing plants. That clearance opened the door to production and worldwide distribution of tungsten concentrate. Since commercial output began, the shares have slipped 1.7%.
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A second expansion phase is designed to nearly double annual ore throughput at Sangdong to 1.2 million tonnes by 2027. Once both phases are complete, Cannon estimates the site could cover about 40% of Western and allied tungsten supply.
Contracted volumes and new alliances
Management has not waited for the ramp-up to finish before locking in demand. On 17 September, Almonty signed a multi-year take-or-pay offtake agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik subsidiary, covering a minimum of roughly 1,720 tonnes of contained WO? recovered from reprocessing tailings at the Los Santos site.
The company is also expanding its footprint in Africa. Under an arrangement with the Rwandan government, Almonty holds 75% of a venture that brings in the Shyorongi exploration licence and a processing permit, with Kigali retaining the remaining 25%.
Capacity growth is advancing on a second front as well, at the Panasqueira operation in Portugal. Management's stated ambition is to become the leading tungsten producer in the Western world by the end of 2028, with additional upside seen in a planned tungsten oxide facility.
Capital returns meet execution risk
Alongside the operational news, the board authorised a share buyback of up to US$300 million, permitting the repurchase of as many as 14.4 million of the company's own shares over a 36-month window.
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The market has rewarded the broader story. Friday's 11% advance brought the year-to-date gain to 52%, lifting Almonty's market capitalisation to roughly EUR 2.74 billion. Even so, the stock remains 41% below its 52-week high — a gap that underscores how much of the bull case still rests on execution.
That is where the caution comes in. More sceptical voices on the sell side flag the implementation risks attached to the expansion projects, and the question now facing investors is a straightforward one: how quickly can mined volumes actually reach the contracted channels?
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