ASML's 2028 Output Ambition Meets a Washington Headache
Published on 09/25/2026 at 11:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ASML is pushing ahead with plans to lift annual production of its most advanced lithography machines beyond 110 units by 2028, even as the Dutch government scrambles to shield the company from a proposed U.S. export crackdown that could cut off a chunk of its China business.
The Eindhoven-based equipment maker has already broken ground on capacity expansion at its home base, according to Reuters, with output targets for 2027 set at a minimum of 80 EUV systems. Order books for the current machine generations are effectively sold out through that period. Pricing reflects the escalating complexity of the hardware: a standard EUV tool runs about $200 million, while the next-generation High-NA platform commands roughly $400 million per unit.
Assembly Speed, Not Suppliers, Is the Real Constraint
The chief obstacle to scaling volumes isn't the supply chain, according to analysts at JPMorgan — it's the pace at which ASML can complete final assembly of these extraordinarily intricate systems. That internal bottleneck will determine whether the 2028 ambition is met.
CEO Christophe Fouquet has pointed to a sustained artificial-intelligence boom and rapid adoption plans among chipmakers as the demand engine behind the ramp-up. TSMC, Samsung, Intel and SK Hynix are all either customers or prospective buyers of the High-NA technology. Intel is already deploying the machines in volume production of selected chip layers, while Samsung aims to bring them into memory manufacturing by 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
For the full year 2026, ASML is targeting revenue of EUR 43 billion to EUR 45 billion with a gross margin of 54% to 56%. Memory customers are providing much of the lift: system sales to that segment are projected to grow 75% this year, against a 25% increase forecast for foundry and logic clients.
Jetten Takes the Export Fight to Washington
While the production plans take shape, a political battle is unfolding across the Atlantic. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten told Bloomberg Television he remains confident of reaching a workable arrangement with Washington over the MATCH Act, a bill that would bar exports of all DUV immersion lithography systems to China. Jetten said he has discussed the proposed rules directly with U.S. President Donald Trump and other lawmakers.
EUV equipment has long been off-limits to Chinese buyers, and the Netherlands already requires licenses for selected DUV models. A blanket ban on immersion systems would tighten the screws further. Jetten argued that ASML already operates under the world's strictest controls and that any rulebook must stay balanced to protect the domestic semiconductor industry.
Buybacks and a Nudge to Estimates
Back on the operational front, ASML continues to deploy cash into its own equity. Between Sept. 14 and Sept. 18, the company repurchased shares worth roughly EUR 428 million under its current buyback program, including EUR 61,579,216 on Sept. 18 alone. Market watchers read the steady purchases as a sign of management's confidence in its market position, even with heavy development spending underway.
Analysts made a minor adjustment in the same window. The Erste Group Bank trimmed its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to $45.10 from $45.59 on Sept. 18, according to media reports.
A Monopoly Priced In
Investor sentiment has swung back toward optimism. The stock rose 1.8% in today's session to EUR 1,539.40, and it is up 66% since the start of the year. Pre-market indications put the shares at EUR 1,527.40. Even after that run, the stock trades about 13% below its 52-week high, as investors weigh the risk of further China-related setbacks against a structural order backlog in a high-tech niche where ASML faces no direct competitor in extreme ultraviolet lithography.
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