ASML's Deliveries Are Accelerating — Its Capacity Still Isn't
Published on 10/23/2026 at 09:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Elon Musk has given ASML watchers a rare glimpse of a flagship customer project moving forward. According to Bloomberg, the Tesla and SpaceX chief said on Tuesday that ASML and other chipmaking equipment suppliers have sped up deliveries for the Terafab project, with SpaceX targeting high-volume chip production in the third or fourth quarter of 2028 — a goal he himself described as highly ambitious.
The distinction matters. Musk was talking about shipments, not a fresh order, and a delivery timeline is not a production milestone. Nothing in his remarks allows anyone to put a revenue figure on ASML's involvement or to declare the manufacturing plan a success. What the statement does show is progress in equipping the project.
A Supply Squeeze the Company Already Flagged
That progress lands against a backdrop ASML has been describing for months. On October 14, the Dutch group said its planned delivery capacity for 2027 and 2028 would fall short of customer demand, and that it is weighing additional capacity expansions for the latter year — a review, not a decision. Reuters picked up the supply gap a day later, pairing it with strong order intake. The operative question for ASML, then, is not whether customers want its machines. It is how many of them the company can actually get out the door.
The financials behind that picture remain robust. ASML posted net sales of EUR 11.7 billion and net profit of EUR 5.0 billion for the third quarter of 2026. For the current quarter it guided to net sales of EUR 14.2 billion to EUR 15.2 billion — a forecast, not booked revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
The Market's Nerves and the Company's Order Book Tell Different Stories
Sentiment on the screen has been another matter entirely. ASML shares fell 6.5% in a single session as a global technology selloff swept through the sector, with Reuters reporting renewed anxiety over AI spending weighing on US equities. Investors are questioning whether the enormous outlays underpinning artificial intelligence can be sustained.
That worry sits in a different box from ASML's operating reality. A capacity shortfall is not a demand collapse, and the quarterly figures offer no evidence of one. Yet a full order book is no shield against doubts about the long-term spending cycle — the two forces can pull on a stock at the same time.
JPMorgan Trims Its Target, Keeps Its Call
Analyst reaction reflected that tension. Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan cut his price target to $2,350 from $2,400 on October 15, while leaving his overweight rating in place — a lower number attached to a still-positive recommendation.
ASML Holding at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For investors, the takeaway is to keep three things apart: demand, which is running hot; capacity, which is the binding constraint through 2028; and booked business, which only materializes on delivery. Musk's comments shed light on one slice of that final step. They do not signal any broad relief in the supply situation ASML itself has described.
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