ASML's Demand Story Holds Up — The Question Is Whether the Money and the Fabs Arrive in Time
Published on 10/24/2026 at 05:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ASML found itself caught in a broad selloff of artificial-intelligence-linked equities, a retreat that the news agency AP traced to mounting unease over AI stocks and rising oil prices. Yet the pressure on the Dutch chip-equipment maker is not simply a sentiment story. It sits at the intersection of two distinct concerns: how the long-term growth case for 2028 and 2029 is being valued, and whether the physical buildout behind that case can actually be delivered.
That distinction matters because ASML's own order picture looks robust. According to the company, planned delivery capacity for 2027 and 2028 will not be sufficient to fully meet customer demand, and management is therefore examining additional capacity for 2028. Customers have also shown interest in ordering advanced systems for 2029 and 2030, as Reuters reported on 15 October. Chief executive Christophe Fouquet has said plainly that the planned capacity increases will not be enough to cover demand.
A gap between interest and revenue
Strong appetite for future tools, however, does not automatically answer how quickly the underlying projects can be realized — and that is precisely where the market's skepticism bites. Reuters flagged doubts about the lofty expectations for 2028 and 2029, alongside worries over the financing of AI projects and bottlenecks in data-center construction. Those factors bear on the execution of expected growth rather than on the desire for ASML's machines. The selling pressure therefore carried both a valuation dimension and a delivery dimension.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
The same caveat applies to Terafab. Elon Musk said on Tuesday that ASML and other equipment suppliers were accelerating deliveries for the project, and he described the targeted start of series production in the third or fourth quarter of 2028 as highly ambitious. That is a statement about suppliers, not a confirmed order announcement from ASML. It underscores why investors need to weigh demand and realistic timelines separately.
The numbers cut the other way
Against that skepticism stands a solid operating record. ASML reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of EUR 11.7 billion, a net profit of EUR 5.0 billion and a gross margin of 57.5%. Roughly two weeks ago the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to EUR 44–45 billion, and for the closing quarter it guided to sales of EUR 14.2–15.2 billion.
Those figures form the counterweight to doubts about more distant growth. The debate is less about profits already booked than about whether the next investment cycle can carry through. A full order book on its own does not settle the return question. ASML's strong operating performance provides support; the longer-range expectations, by contrast, still have to prove themselves in tools that can actually be shipped — and in the revenue those shipments generate.
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