ASML's Legal Ghost From 2024 Can't Dent a Rally Built on €259 Billion in Forecasts
Published on 08/15/2026 at 08:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant finds itself in an unusual position: Wall Street is racing to raise price targets while a two-year-old class action lawsuit quietly winds its way through a New York federal court. The contrast could hardly be starker.
Bernstein Litowitz Berger & Grossmann filed the suit on November 14, 2024, in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, accusing ASML and individual executives of misleading investors between January 24 and October 15, 2024, about growth prospects and demand for EUV and DUV machines. The allegations pertain exclusively to communications from that period — a world away from the company's current trajectory.
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The Optimism Machine Keeps Grinding Higher
The bull case has rarely looked more robust. Bernstein analyst David Dai reaffirmed ASML as a "Top Pick" among European semiconductor equipment makers on August 10, while dramatically lifting forecasts for global wafer fab equipment spending. The numbers now stand at $148 billion for 2026, $204 billion for 2027, and $259 billion for 2028 — a 75 percent jump within two years.
Those figures matter disproportionately to ASML, which enjoys near-monopoly status in EUV lithography systems and captures an outsized share of every incremental dollar the chip industry invests. Goldman Sachs made its own statement the same day, adding ASML to its European Conviction List. Analyst Alex Duval projects margin expansion from roughly 41 percent this fiscal year to about 50 percent by 2029, citing pricing power, a mix shift toward higher-priced platforms, and operating leverage. Berenberg followed suit, lifting its price target from €1,570 to €2,100.
RBC Capital had already raised its target from $1,700 to $2,000 in mid-July with an "Outperform" rating, pointing to persistent EUV capacity scarcity and robust AI-driven demand. Bank of America doubled down the same day, keeping a Buy rating with a $2,831 target and arguing that emerging lithography competitors actually validate ASML's moat rather than undermine it.
Buybacks and Dividends: Cash Flows While Courts Grind
The legal wrangling hasn't slowed capital returns. ASML repurchased 266,460 of its own shares between August 3 and 7 at a weighted average price of roughly €1,467.02, totaling about €390.7 million. Daily buybacks during the first August week ranged from €78.1 million to €78.3 million, with some sessions seeing more than 55,000 shares acquired.
Shareholders have been rewarded on multiple fronts. An interim dividend of €1.88 per share was paid on August 5, while a quarterly interim dividend of $2.1507 per share went out to holders registered on July 28. The annual general meeting had earlier approved a final dividend of €2.70 per share for fiscal 2025, bringing total distributions for that year to €7.50 per share.
The Fundamentals Beneath the Frenzy
The second-quarter results, published in July, provide the bedrock for all this optimism. ASML posted net sales of €9.3 billion, beating its own guidance, with gross margin of 54.0 percent also exceeding targets. Net profit came in at €2.9 billion. Full-year guidance was raised to €43–45 billion in revenue with a gross margin of 54–56 percent, while the third quarter is expected to deliver €11–12 billion in sales at a margin of 55–57 percent.
Technological momentum reinforces the financial picture. Intel Foundry has begun mass production using ASML's High-NA EUV systems on selected 18A process layers for its Core Ultra Series 3 processors, with yields already matching the established 0.33NA NXE platform. ASML also plans to expand manufacturing capacity for Low-NA EUV and DUV immersion systems by 30 percent each next year.
Customer demand signals remain emphatic. TSMC reported July revenue of NT$467.58 billion, up 44.7 percent year-over-year — a data point analysts read as a bullish indicator for advanced lithography demand. SK Hynix is scaling annual chip investments to a record 45 trillion won (roughly $31 billion) to expand AI memory production, including additional EUV tools from ASML. Nanya Technology is reportedly set to become a new EUV customer, while Samsung plans to deploy ASML's High-NA systems for its 1-nanometer process node, with volume production slated for 2030.
A Stock That Keeps Climbing
The market's verdict is visible in the share price. The stock closed Friday at €1,590.00, down 1.0 percent on the day, yet up 5.4 percent over seven trading sessions and 73 percent since the start of the year. The secondary source records a slightly different Friday close of €1,591.60 with a 5.5 percent weekly gain — minor discrepancies reflecting timing of data capture. Either way, the stock sits 9.0 percent below its 52-week high of €1,748.00, leaving room for further upside if the analysts' ambitious industry forecasts materialize.
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The class action's practical impact may ultimately be limited to legal expenses. The next meaningful test comes on October 14, when ASML reports third-quarter 2026 results — an opportunity to demonstrate whether the litigation distracts from operations or simply fades against the relentless demand from chipmakers worldwide.
