ASML's Order Book Runs to 2027 — But a Shanghai Rival Is Testing the Bull Case
Published on 08/05/2026 at 07:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant is caught in a tug-of-war between two forces: an order pipeline stretched to capacity and a new competitive threat emerging from China. For now, the former is winning.
ASML shares climbed 3.78 percent on Tuesday to EUR 1,483.20, extending a seven-session winning streak that has added 9.61 percent to the stock. The recovery follows a late-July wobble triggered by reports that a Shanghai-based, state-backed company had begun mass production of its own immersion DUV lithography systems — the first credible domestic alternative to ASML's machines in a market that accounted for roughly 36 percent of group sales in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The Bull Case: A Booked-Out Future
The rally's real engine, though, sits in the order book. Goldman Sachs added ASML to its Conviction List after management signaled that manufacturing capacity is fully booked through the end of 2027. Bernstein followed suit, placing the stock on its European Conviction List with a price target of EUR 2,500, citing strong orders from logic and DRAM chipmakers that offer better visibility into future growth.
Zeiss, the critical optics supplier, is reinforcing confidence in the supply chain. Its Oberkochen plant is expanding by roughly 25,000 square meters of production floor space, with the first employees moving into the completed building this month — four years after the 2022 groundbreaking. Oberkochen and Wetzlar remain the only sites worldwide capable of producing the optical columns for ASML scanners. As ASML's annual report notes, Zeiss capacity alone limits how many systems the company can build.
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For the Low-NA EUV segment, ASML's finance chief Roger Dassen says the company is nearly sold out for 2027. Capacity there is rising about 30 percent from roughly 65 systems today, and a further expansion for 2028 is under review.
The Bear Case: A Rival Emerges
The Chinese competitor that rattled investors in late July hasn't gone away. The Shanghai company's immersion DUV machines are the first serious challenge to ASML's dominance in a market segment that has been a major revenue driver. Bernstein, however, downplays the threat, arguing the technology trails ASML's by years.
The numbers offer some comfort. China accounted for just 16 percent of ASML's revenue in the first half of 2026 — roughly EUR 2.9 billion over six months — a sharp drop from the 36 percent share seen in Q4 2025. Dassen expects the full-year China share to settle around 20 percent as demand picks up in the second half.
Washington adds another layer of uncertainty. The US Commerce Department is investigating whether ASML violated export controls related to EUV components, with senior government officials citing possible specification breaches.
Fundamentals Hold Up
The second-quarter numbers support the constructive narrative. Net sales reached EUR 9,326 million — ahead of the company's own guidance — with a gross margin of 54.0 percent. Net profit came in at EUR 2,918 million, translating to earnings per share of EUR 7.59. Management raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to a range of EUR 43–45 billion.
The company's capital strength is on display this week as well. On Wednesday, ASML pays its latest interim dividend of EUR 1.88 per ordinary share. During Q2, the group invested roughly EUR 1.1 billion under its 2026–2028 buyback program.
The Technical Picture: Still Catching Up
Despite the recent bounce, the stock remains 15.15 percent below its June record high of EUR 1,748.00. It trades 7.09 percent below its level of 30 days ago and sits 3.62 percent under its 50-day average of EUR 1,538.98 — though it holds a comfortable 22.71 percent premium to the 200-day average of EUR 1,208.68. The RSI at 47.9 signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
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The longer-term picture is more flattering: the stock is up 60.95 percent year-to-date and has more than doubled over twelve months, gaining 148.57 percent since its 52-week low of EUR 588.00 on August 6, 2025.
The Margin Question
Not everything points higher. The transition to High-NA EUV technology is pushing research costs up, and ongoing supply-chain capacity investments could pressure margins in the near term — even as revenue forecasts climb. Intel Foundry's launch of series production for selected "Panther Lake" processors on 18A technology, using ASML's latest High-NA EUV generation, is an encouraging proof point. Yields are already matching the established NXE platform, validating ASML's position as the sole supplier of these systems.
Whether the current rally holds will likely hinge on two variables: the trajectory of the US investigation and further production milestones for High-NA EUV. The order book is full — but the competitive landscape is no longer ASML's alone.
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