BASF's Buyback and Upgraded Guidance Take Centre Stage Ahead of November 23 Capital Markets Day
Published on 11/07/2026 at 05:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF has spent the past fortnight buying back its own stock, raising its full-year earnings target and collecting automotive industry plaudits — yet the share price still slipped 2.5% as a global selloff in AI-related technology stocks pulled DAX investors toward the exits. Reuters reported that the retreat in US and Asian tech names prompted the withdrawal, with BASF named among the German benchmark index's losers.
The pullback came a day after a separate session in which the stock fell 2.9% amid a weak German market, with dpa-AFX citing concerns over possible tariff consequences of the US midterm elections, the Middle East conflict and investment in AI infrastructure. For investors, the question now is whether the operational improvement can provide enough support to offset that external pressure.
Earnings momentum as the real yardstick
The third quarter of 2026 delivered sales of EUR 16.4 billion, up 14% on the prior-year period. EBITDA before special items rose 15% to EUR 1.6 billion. That figure is the most meaningful test of the company's trajectory, since it makes the operating earnings progress visible.
A single stronger quarter provides a starting point; a more durable positive view would require further results to confirm the same direction. Investors should therefore weight the interplay between business expansion and earnings development more heavily than individual product announcements.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
Roughly a week ago BASF raised its EBITDA guidance for the full year 2026. The new range is EUR 7.4 billion to EUR 7.8 billion, up from a previous forecast of EUR 6.9 billion to EUR 7.7 billion. The upgrade reinforces expectations that the company can underpin the improvement over the coming months.
Buyback programme passes 7.5 million shares
On Monday BASF reported the repurchase of 355,128 of its own shares for the period from 26 to 30 October inclusive. Since the programme began on 3 August, a total of 7,595,230 shares had been acquired up to and including 30 October.
Concrete operational steps also support the more optimistic case. BASF commissioned expanded production capacity for alkylpolyglucosides in Cincinnati, Ohio, on 27 October — an expansion that could support the business provided the additional capacity can be used economically.
Collaboration along the application chain offers further starting points. The BASF subsidiary trinamiX presented a joint approach to feed analysis with Eurofins Agro Testing on 30 October, combining trinamiX's mobile NIR spectroscopy with the partner's calibration models. Any economic contribution would depend on how widely customers adopt the approach.
Award recognition for Jeep and Toyota projects
On Thursday BASF, Stellantis and L&L Products received an SPE Automotive Innovation Award for a tunnel reinforcement in the Jeep Grand Cherokee. BASF, Toyota and Vuteq were honoured for the thermoplastic truck bed of the Toyota Tacoma — a project that, according to company statements, also took the SPE Automotive Innovation Grand Award as well as the prize in the body exterior category. Such applications point to further business opportunities, provided the technical collaboration generates economically attractive demand.
Analyst downgrade sets a stricter bar
A counterargument to the bullish reading came from Deutsche Bank Research on 26 October, when the firm downgraded BASF from "Buy" to "Hold" and cut its price target from EUR 60 to EUR 53.
That reassessment raises the importance of clear earnings confirmation. The more cautious stance would gain weight if BASF fails to extend its recent growth; additional capacity and new applications would then be measured by their actual contribution to earnings power.
BASF at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The potential Evonik acquisition remains a further uncertainty. Evonik rejected BASF's offer roughly a week ago, and on Thursday interim chief executive Claus Rettig reaffirmed the refusal in an interview with the FAZ. According to Evonik, BASF offered EUR 24 per share. A positive investment case should therefore rest on the existing business while a deal remains unresolved.
What to watch next
As long as BASF can continue growing operating earnings and meet its raised guidance, a more favourable trajectory remains plausible. Should earnings momentum falter, the cautious valuation would gain the upper hand, and new applications and capacity would need to deliver a more convincing economic contribution to sustain the positive outlook.
The next concrete checkpoint is the fourth-quarter 2026 results, which BASF expects to publish on 26 February 2027. Before that, the company's Capital Markets Day on 23 November stands as the next confirmed capital markets date — and the first real opportunity for management to flesh out how the upgraded guidance will be delivered.
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