BASF Wins Berenberg's Short-Term Nod but Faces a Harder 2027 Test
Published on 11/11/2026 at 04:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF has given investors little to complain about in the near term. The harder question, according to Berenberg, is whether the earnings strength carries into 2027 — and that doubt sits at the heart of the broker's freshly published assessment following an investor event in New York.
Analyst Sebastian Bray came away with a robust picture of the group's short-term trading from Chief Executive Markus Kamieth. Even so, the bar for next year looks steep, particularly in upstream chemicals, where it is unclear whether the profitability lifted by the Iran war can be matched again. Berenberg keeps its "Hold" rating and a price target of 51.50 euros; at 54.51 euros, the shares are already trading above that mark, so the house view is more guarded than the market's.
Guidance Raised Twice, Prices Do the Heavy Lifting
The cautious stance sits alongside a decidedly upbeat forecast. On 28 October, BASF lifted its full-year target for EBITDA before special items to at least 7.4 billion euros, up from a previous floor of 6.9 billion euros — the second upgrade this year. A later revision narrowed the range to 7.4 to 7.8 billion euros, against an earlier span of 6.9 to 7.7 billion.
Third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 14% to 16.4 billion euros. Prices climbed roughly 12% over the period while volumes added 2%, a mix that puts the emphasis squarely on pricing power rather than extra tonnage. The ramp-up of the new Zhanjiang site in China contributed to the volume gain. Whether those higher prices can be pushed through again is the pivot on which the 2027 story turns.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BASF?
Agriculture Provides the Counterweight
Not every unit pulled in the same direction. Sales at Agricultural Solutions fell by a fifth in the third quarter, and the division slipped into the red. A broader-based improvement would strengthen the case for the group, provided the farm business can return to a positive contribution.
Portfolio Housekeeping Continues
Alongside the numbers, BASF is keeping its deal pipeline active. On Monday it signed a letter of intent with Nox Bellcow Cosmetics to explore a strategic partnership focused on body-care formulations and ingredient technologies; the two sides will first assess whether cooperation in these areas makes sense. The same day brought the unveiling, with Hyundai Motor Company-Kia and Alten Korea, of a jointly developed seating concept for the Kia EV3 Study Car 2.0, drawing on BASF's engineering plastics, polyurethanes and thermoplastic polyurethane.
On the divestment side, BASF agreed on 5 November to sell its Palatal business in Chile to ALTA Performance Materials. Completion remains subject to customary conditions, including regulatory approvals.
BASF at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What to Watch
Fourth-quarter 2026 results are due on 26 February 2027. Until then, confirmation of the solid trading Berenberg expects will dominate. Beyond that, the longer-term verdict hinges on whether BASF can defend its elevated profitability once war-driven price support fades.
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