Bayer's Legal Calendar Shifts Again, But Q2 Numbers Give Bulls Fresh Ammunition
Published on 08/07/2026 at 15:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The wait for a final resolution in Bayer's long-running Roundup litigation just got a little longer — yet investors are finding reasons to look past the delay. The German chemicals and pharmaceuticals group delivered second-quarter results that beat analyst expectations, prompting a wave of target-price hikes from the sell-side and a fresh bout of buying in the shares.
The stock rose 1.07 percent to EUR 49.91 on Friday, extending a recovery that had already seen the equity gain 3.16 percent the previous week. The shares now trade comfortably above their 50-day moving average of EUR 44.16, a technical signal that momentum has shifted in the bulls' favour, though they still sit 8.32 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 53.86 touched in July.
Court Hearing Pushed Back as Opt-Outs Get Scrutiny
The hearing originally scheduled for August 19 to grant final approval to the Roundup class-action settlement has been moved to September 14 in Missouri. Monsanto and plaintiffs' attorneys jointly requested the postponement, which is intended to give the parties and the program administrator additional time to process withdrawal requests that arrived after the US Supreme Court's late-June ruling. The delay could also allow for early clarification on the validity of individual opt-outs, according to dpa-AFX.
That Supreme Court decision — which determined that plaintiffs cannot sue Bayer over a missing cancer warning, given the Environmental Protection Agency's classification of glyphosate as non-carcinogenic — has strengthened the company's hand. CEO Bill Anderson described the ruling as a landmark and said it leaves the group in a stronger position to finalise the proposed settlement, under which Bayer would make declining, capped annual payments totalling up to USD 7.25 billion over as many as 21 years.
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Crop Science Powers the Beat
Operationally, the second quarter delivered more than the market had priced in. Group revenue rose 2.2 percent on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis to EUR 10.872 billion, while EBITDA before special items advanced 1.9 percent to EUR 2.144 billion. The standout performer was the Crop Science division, where sales climbed 3.5 percent to EUR 4.910 billion and EBITDA before special items jumped 30.2 percent to EUR 902 million.
The agricultural arm is also pushing into new territory on the product front. In France, Bayer has launched "Pack MD Diag+", a bundle combining the Mateno Duo herbicide with the Herbi Diag+ resistance diagnostic. Farmers can use the qPCR-based testing method to identify herbicide resistance in blackgrass and ryegrass within wheat and barley crops, with samples accepted between August 15 and November 15 and results available within four to five weeks. The offering signals a strategic tilt toward digital diagnostics rather than pure active-ingredient marketing.
Pharma's Mixed Picture
The pharmaceuticals division told a more complicated story. Revenue was essentially flat at EUR 4.458 billion, while EBITDA before special items slipped 3.6 percent to EUR 1.055 billion. The culprit remains biosimilar competition eroding sales of the eye drug Eylea, whose 2mg formulation collapsed by 60 percent in the quarter. Offsetting that weakness were the growth drivers Nubeqa and Kerendia, which together generated EUR 1.2 billion in revenue — a 69 percent increase. Nubeqa alone climbed 64 percent to EUR 880 million.
Despite the top-line resilience, profitability at the group level came under pressure. Core earnings per share fell 16.7 percent to EUR 0.95 from EUR 1.14 a year earlier. Net income improved to EUR 219 million, but free cash flow swung to minus EUR 371 million, weighed down in part by higher litigation-related payments. The Indian subsidiary also reported slightly lower revenue for the quarter, though pre-tax profit rose — evidence that cost discipline is taking hold beyond the core markets.
Debt Outlook Improves Faster Than Expected
Management used the results to sharpen its balance-sheet guidance. Bayer confirmed its currency-adjusted full-year 2026 outlook but trimmed its expected year-end net financial debt to EUR 29-30 billion, down from a prior range of EUR 32-33 billion. At exchange rates prevailing on June 30, the group anticipates 2026 revenue between EUR 44.7 billion and EUR 46.7 billion, with core earnings per share of EUR 4.20 to EUR 4.70.
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Additional relief is on the way from the July agreement under which Apollo Global Management will take a stake in Bayer's contraception business, injecting EUR 3.0 billion in equity. That transaction is expected to close in the third quarter.
Analysts Reach for New Targets
The earnings beat has prompted a flurry of target-price revisions. UBS lifted its price objective from EUR 52 to EUR 62 on Thursday, maintaining a buy rating; analyst Matthew Weston noted that operating results exceeded consensus by roughly ten percent. The DZ Bank followed suit, raising its fair value from EUR 54 to EUR 60 with a "buy" stance, as analyst Peter Spengler cited signs of operational stabilisation and progress on deleveraging. Goldman Sachs now sees the stock at EUR 63.50, while JPMorgan reaffirmed its "overweight" rating with a EUR 50 target.
Even at Friday's level of EUR 49.91, the shares remain a good distance below most of those marks — a gap that reflects the market's continued caution over the unresolved glyphosate litigation. The next earnings release is scheduled for November 3, but it is the September court hearing that will likely determine whether the recent recovery has further to run or stalls as investors wait for the legal fog to finally lift.
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