Bayer Wins Twin Approvals and a Guidance Lift, but Jefferies Stays on the Fence
Published on 11/11/2026 at 14:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer has given investors two fresh regulatory wins and a brighter earnings outlook in the space of a week — yet the sell-side is far from unanimous on what any of it is worth. The US Food and Drug Administration on Wednesday approved SUNHARBO, whose active ingredient is asundexian, for cutting stroke risk in adults who have recently suffered a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or a high-risk transient ischemic attack. It is to be used alongside an antiplatelet therapy, and Bayer expects shipments for the American market to begin between mid and late November.
The FDA green light follows Chinese approval of the same product on 26 October, when the NMPA cleared SUNHARBO. According to Bayer, it is the first approved factor XIa inhibitor indicated for reducing the risk of a repeat stroke. Reuters attributed the stock's temporary rise on Wednesday to that milestone.
A second Chinese nod arrived last Wednesday, this time for sevabertinib, in the first-line treatment of adults with HER2-mutant non-small cell lung cancer that is unresectable, locally advanced or metastatic.
Guidance Raised on a Stronger Pharma Showing
Those regulatory advances sit alongside an upgraded forecast. Roughly a week ago Bayer lifted its full-year 2026 guidance for EBITDA before special items to between EUR 9.8bn and EUR 10.3bn, from a previous range of EUR 9.6bn to EUR 10.1bn. Reuters reported that the company credited a better-than-expected performance in its pharmaceuticals division for the increase.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
The third quarter of 2026 delivered group revenue of EUR 10.05bn, up 4.1%, while EBITDA before special items came in at EUR 1.62bn, a gain of 6.9%. The more precise figures reported by the company were EUR 10.053bn in sales and EUR 1.615bn in adjusted EBITDA.
Two Brokers, Two Conclusions
Deutsche Bank Research on Wednesday raised its price target on Bayer to EUR 65 from EUR 60 while keeping its Buy rating, citing higher earnings estimates following the third-quarter update. Jefferies, by contrast, reiterated its Hold and its EUR 48.50 target — below Wednesday's closing price of EUR 57.22.
Analyst Michael Leuchten described the approval as expected, while acknowledging that it materially lowers the risk attached to Bayer's pharmaceutical pipeline. That is the crux of the disagreement: a major development hurdle has been cleared, yet one house remains cautious on valuation.
The stock has climbed 55% since the start of the year, which raises the bar for further gains. Investors betting on more upside are effectively taking a more favourable view of the business than Jefferies does, and the coming quarters will show whether the pipeline progress translates into hard cash. Shares were down 1.6% on Thursday.
Bayer at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Earnings Become the Scorecard
What matters now is how the improved pharma outlook feeds through to group-level profit. The reduced development risk improves visibility, but only additional revenue would demonstrate the commercial weight of the approvals. Should earnings momentum falter, the gap between operational progress and market valuation could become a drag — particularly if the pharmaceuticals unit offers less support to upgraded profit expectations than bulls assume.
The next checkpoint will be further operating results and commentary on the commercial rollout of the newly approved drugs. That is where it will be decided whether a lower-risk pipeline turns into a durably stronger earnings base.
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