Berenberg Sees SATCOMBw Stage 4 Verdict Possibly Landing This Year, With EUR 358 Target Hinging on Orders
Published on 11/10/2026 at 13:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Berenberg analyst Michael Filatov has restated his bullish stance on OHB SE, keeping a Buy rating and a EUR 358 price target that sits well above the current EUR 208.00 share price. The call rests less on what OHB has already booked than on what may be about to land in its order book.
Timing is the pivot. Filatov believes the defence ministry could rule on the fourth expansion stage of SATCOMBw before this year is out, though his base case still points to early 2027. That gap matters: an earlier green light would vindicate the optimistic reading of OHB's prospects, provided it translates into an actual contract. Investors who pencil in the faster timetable are simply raising the bar for a positive surprise.
The order-flow thesis has a firmer anchor. Filatov describes the Sentinel-3 satellite contract from the European Space Agency, reported roughly a week ago, as secured — a concrete win that gives the bullish argument substance while the SATCOMBw decision remains a possibility with an open date. The Copernicus mandate carries a volume of more than EUR 554 million, plus an option on a second satellite.
A Joint Venture Waiting in the Wings
Should SATCOMBw Stage 4 move forward, the work would sit with OHB Rheinmetall Space Networks, the 50-50 joint venture with Rheinmetall that is slated to take overall responsibility for developing, integrating, delivering and operating a protected communications architecture. For OHB, that represents an additional avenue — one that only becomes business once the intended role is actually activated.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying OHB SE?
Elsewhere on the corporate front, OHB agreed on 26 October to acquire 25% of MediaMobil as part of a capital increase, a further step that could contribute economically if it bears fruit.
Hera's Close-Up Adds Operational Colour
Technical execution offers a separate gauge of how OHB System delivers. The ESA probe Hera, built by the company, has transmitted its first close-up of the Didymos asteroid system from a distance of roughly 60 kilometres. According to the company, tests of the rendezvous and deployment procedures for the CubeSats Juventas and Milani also succeeded. That progress counts in OHB's favour as long as the remaining mission steps go to plan.
The distinction investors need to hold onto is between flying a mission and monetising it. Hera speaks to execution on work already underway; the Sentinel-3 order points to development work still ahead. Whether the technical record translates into a durable business base will be measured in the numbers.
12 November Is the Real Test
That makes the nine-month report, scheduled for 12 November alongside a results presentation, the next hard checkpoint. The stock has climbed 31% in 30 days, which sharpens the risk of disappointment if the figures fail to underpin the expectations built on recent project news. Attention will fall on order intake and on any commentary about the forward timetable.
The bull case holds together only if project momentum and financial delivery move in step. A wide gap between the two would force the valuation to lean more heavily on financial performance. Hera offers a further marker after the accounts: ESA is due to publish detailed imagery of both asteroids on 25 November.
For now the sequence is clear — financial proof first, technical follow-through second. OHB earns a constructive reading on one condition: that operations confirm the analyst's confidence step by step.
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