BMW's China Nightmare Deepens as Munich Pivots Away From an All-Electric Future
Published on 08/11/2026 at 18:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Bavarian automaker is caught between a collapsing Chinese EV market and a stock price hovering dangerously close to its 52-week floor. BMW's second-quarter results, published in its half-year report on July 30, painted a grim picture: operating profit in the automotive division plunged 60 percent to EUR 629 million, while deliveries in China fell 30.2 percent — a decline that cuts far deeper than the broader industry's woes.
The numbers out of China are stark. Between January and May 2026, BMW sold roughly 10,000 electric vehicles in the country, a staggering 75 percent drop from the 42,000 units moved in the same period a year earlier. Even the combustion-engine business is bleeding, with new registrations down 30 percent in May. Discounts on the i3 sedan failed to move the needle, production of the i5 has been suspended, and plans for the G74 luxury SUV — conceived as a rival to the Mercedes G-Class — have been shelved indefinitely.
A Strategic Retreat From EV Aggression
CEO Milan Nedeljkovi? is responding with a shift toward "technology openness" rather than a forced electric-first strategy. The pivot was telegraphed back in mid-June, when the company issued a profit warning. Nedeljkovi? cites weak Chinese demand, US trade barriers, and tightening regulation as the forces compelling BMW to reassess its product roadmap. The decision to scrap the G74 signals a preference for preserving capital over betting on a segment whose Chinese demand is evaporating in real time.
The industry backdrop offers little comfort. A study by the Center Automotive Management (CAM) found that operating profits across the 15 largest automakers collapsed 17.5 percent to EUR 35.6 billion in the first half, on a 1.4 percent revenue decline. Average profit per vehicle fell from EUR 1,409 to EUR 1,187. BMW managed EUR 3,142 per car — respectable, but well short of Mercedes-Benz's EUR 4,122. The CAM researchers see no relief in the second half, with US tariffs and intensifying Chinese competition continuing to weigh on the sector.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
German policymakers aren't riding to the rescue either. Transport Minister Steffen Bilger has ruled out new EV purchase subsidies following the expiry of the current incentive program, preferring instead to channel support toward electric trucks. For a manufacturer already grappling with weak EV uptake, that stance does little to brighten the outlook.
Stock Teeters Near Annual Low Despite Buyback Support
The market has absorbed the bad news with grim resignation. BMW shares traded at EUR 59.96 on the day, up 1.15 percent, but that modest bounce leaves the stock just 6.31 percent above its 52-week low of EUR 56.40, set on July 24. The shares remain 1.96 percent below their 50-day moving average — a technical signal that the recent stabilization lacks conviction.
The secondary article's data confirms the fragility: on Monday, the stock sat at EUR 59.28, and last Thursday it slipped 1.28 percent to close at EUR 58.64. The distance to the 50-day average of EUR 61.42 stands at roughly 3.5 percent in the red, with the share price trading below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The RSI of 46.6 sits in neutral territory, while annualized volatility of about 24.5 percent points to persistently jittery trading conditions.
Despite the pressure, BMW pressed ahead with its 2025–2027 share buyback program, acquiring another 383,000 of its own shares on August 3. Management's decision to maintain capital returns amid falling prices is typically read as a floor under the stock — though it does nothing to address the underlying operational drag.
Analyst opinion remains split. Jefferies reaffirmed a "Hold" rating on the same day, while Goldman Sachs stuck with a "Buy" recommendation. That divergence captures the market's uncertainty: one camp sees the current valuation as an entry point, the other counsels patience until concrete operational improvements materialize.
For now, the chart offers no clear direction. The stock's proximity to its annual low, combined with the structural problems in its most important foreign market, suggests the G74 deferral may be merely the first of several portfolio adjustments. BMW's flexibility on powertrain strategy buys time — but it doesn't yet answer the question of how the company rebuilds momentum in a market that has turned decisively against it.
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