BYD's October Deliveries Jump 11% as Overseas Shipments More Than Double — but Currency Losses Cloud the Profit Picture
Published on 11/01/2026 at 14:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BYD moved 490,168 vehicles in October, an 11% year-on-year increase, according to Reuters calculations published today based on a company statement. The headline number is solid. The more revealing figure sits underneath it: overseas shipments climbed 102.8% to 170,194 units, more than doubling and expanding far faster than the group as a whole.
That gap between total growth and export growth is where the investment debate now sits. Selling more cars is one thing; converting those sales into earnings is another — and the latest quarterly report shows the two are not moving in lockstep.
A 28% Profit Gain That Still Fell Short
In the third quarter of 2026, BYD's net profit rose 28.08% year on year to RMB 10.02 billion. Revenue advanced 13.6% to RMB 221.5 billion. By most standards that is a strong set of numbers. By the market's standards, it was not enough: broker estimates had ranged between RMB 11.4 billion and RMB 12.95 billion, leaving the actual result below even the low end of the forecast range. Reuters also flagged margin pressure stemming from intense competition in the domestic market.
The October sales data extend the volume-side growth story. They do not resolve the earnings question.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
Two Banks, Two Very Different Readings
Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating on BYD's H-shares on Friday, keeping a target price of HK$114. The house pointed to the profitability of the overseas business and the company's ability to translate operations into earnings — while acknowledging currency headwinds of more than RMB 2 billion in the third quarter of 2026. Despite that drag, Morgan Stanley stayed positive.
JPMorgan took the opposite tack on Tuesday. It cut its rating on the A-shares from "Neutral" to "Underweight," citing stagnating domestic demand, higher component costs, reduced VAT rebates on exports and the prospect of EU import quotas on plug-in hybrids. The target price on the A-shares was slashed from RMB 88 to RMB 65. The H-shares kept a "Neutral" rating, but their target was trimmed from HK$88 to HK$60.
The distinction between share classes matters: the downgrade applied specifically to the A-shares, though the bank grew more cautious on the H-shares as well.
Overseas Growth Is Uneven Beneath the Surface
The export surge is not a uniform success story. Reuters reported Thursday that BYD sold more than 20,000 vehicles in South Korea in the first nine months of 2026, while sales in Japan remained subdued. International expansion, in other words, is running at different speeds depending on the market.
On the production side, Vice President Liu Xueliang said on 25 October that BYD would open new plants in Europe "soon," adding that higher tariffs should not deter local consumers from choosing the company's vehicles. The planned European factories add a manufacturing dimension to the export numbers — but they are not yet evidence of additional sales or higher profits.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What the Split Verdict Really Means
Strip away the headlines and the two analyst calls frame the same central question from opposite ends. Morgan Stanley is willing to look past a RMB 2 billion-plus currency hit and back the overseas margin story. JPMorgan is focused on demand, costs and trade barriers at home and abroad.
For investors, rising quarterly profit alone does not settle the matter. The valuation question is how durable those earnings are in the face of domestic competition — and how much profitable contribution the overseas business can genuinely deliver. That is precisely where the two houses part ways.
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