Deutsche Telekom: Buyback on Track, T-Mobile US Merger on Ice — JPMorgan Stays Bullish
Published on 11/04/2026 at 11:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom enters its third-quarter reporting season with two very different stories running side by side. One is a capital-return programme that is already being executed. The other is a cross-border merger that has, for now, been parked. JPMorgan's decision to reaffirm its "Overweight" rating and a EUR 38 price target on 29 October suggests the bank is comfortable holding both threads at once.
The stock last traded at EUR 26.03, leaving meaningful headroom to the target. That gap reflects an analyst's expectation rather than a guaranteed return, and it says nothing about whether the US combination will ever happen.
A buyback that is already in the books
The most concrete item on the table is the share repurchase scheme. On Monday the Bonn-based group disclosed the acquisition of 6,017,301 of its own shares during the preceding week. Since the programme began on 10 August, cumulative purchases had reached 44,155,725 shares by the end of that reporting window.
That distinction between an announced intention and completed transactions matters for anyone weighing the equity. The company is visibly putting the programme to work, though buybacks offer no assured support for the share price and no read-through on future earnings. Investors who view the purchases favourably still need to test whether the underlying business justifies that view.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Washington and the works council stand in the way
The merger question moved to the fore on 28 October, when Bloomberg reported that Deutsche Telekom had held off, for the time being, on submitting a formal offer for a full combination with T-Mobile US. The plans had stalled, according to that report.
Reuters followed a day later with a fuller account, tying the pause to opposition from the works council and concerns that a deal could dilute the German government's influence over the company. The key phrase in both accounts is "for the time being" — this is neither a completed transaction nor a definitive abandonment. Treating the stalled process as a permanent end to the plans would overreach, just as treating a deal as a foregone conclusion would.
Subscriber momentum lends support
What has not stalled is the US business. Reuters reported on 29 October that T-Mobile US attracted more new customers than expected, a development that gave the Telekom share a lift on the same day the merger pause was making headlines.
Hard numbers arrived with the third-quarter 2026 figures: revenue of USD 23.6 billion, up 7% year on year, and adjusted EBITDA of USD 9.6 billion, an 11% increase. Those are operating results, and they stand apart from the transaction debate. Growth at the US unit does not substitute for a decision on a combination, and the stalled process does not invalidate the reported figures.
A satellite threat on the horizon
Competitive risk deserves equal weight alongside the buyback and the customer wins. Media reports dated 9 October suggested that SpaceX could acquire a nationwide portfolio of low-band spectrum in the US, potentially turning Starlink Mobile into a major American wireless carrier. That is a possible competitive scenario, not a demonstrated downturn at the Telekom subsidiary.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The unresolved merger file adds a second layer of uncertainty. Should the transaction be revived, the reported resistance from labour representatives and political quarters could regain prominence. The current pause should not be read as a lasting settlement of those conflicts.
What the 5 November print must deliver
The next hard checkpoint is the scheduled release of third-quarter 2026 financial results on 5 November 2026. If the business development confirms the positive US signal, the buyback gains weight as a supporting argument within a broader picture anchored in operations. If it disappoints, documented share purchases should not be mistaken for operating strength.
A benign scenario would see subscriber momentum at T-Mobile US hold up while the full takeover stays on the back burner, allowing valuation to focus on the existing business and the capital actually being deployed. Even then, buybacks solve neither competitive pressure nor strategic conflict. The repurchase programme is a complement to the operating story, not a replacement for it — and the analyst endorsement is a rating on the stock, separate from the fate of any transaction.
Ad
Deutsche Telekom Stock: New Analysis - 4 November
Fresh Deutsche Telekom information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
