Evonik Refuses to Bend: Rettig Rejects BASF While Cash Flow and a 22-Euro Target Tell Two Different Stories
Published on 11/07/2026 at 15:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's interim chief Claus Rettig used Thursday's media round to restate what investors had already suspected: the specialty chemicals maker is not for sale. His reaffirmation of the rejection of BASF's takeover approach shifts the debate squarely onto whether Evonik's own earnings engine can justify walking away from roughly 11.2 billion euros in cash.
The offer itself is not new. BASF priced its improved voluntary bid at 24 euros per share about a week ago. Evonik's management board turned it down but left the door open to a purely informational and confidential exchange — a distinction that keeps dialogue alive without committing either side to anything.
That leaves shareholders weighing two competing narratives. On one side sits the certainty of a 24-euro bid; on the other, a standalone story that now has to prove itself. Friday's close of 21.42 euros captures the gap precisely — the market is neither pricing a deal nor fully endorsing independence.
The Numbers Behind the Refusal
Evonik's third-quarter 2026 report offers the strongest ammunition for the standalone case. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 629 million euros, up 40 percent year on year. Free cash flow for the quarter reached 369 million euros, and 601 million euros over the first nine months. Management guides to roughly 850 million euros of free cash flow for the full year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
The earnings target carries equal weight. Evonik expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of its 2.0 to 2.2 billion euro range — a promise that now doubles as the yardstick for Rettig's strategy. Deliver it, and the refusal looks principled. Miss it, and the decision invites harder questions.
Capital deployment continues regardless of the takeover noise. On Tuesday the company flagged 52 million euros for expanding its silicone platform at the Essen-Goldschmidtstraße site, where a new production facility and tank farm have been completed to add capacity for organomodified silicones. Evonik also extended its "Evonik Tailor Made" efficiency program through 2029, booking 313 million euros in provisions during the third quarter for the additional measures.
On the portfolio front, the sale process for the C4 chemicals business Oxeno is proceeding to plan, with a buyer announcement expected in the coming months.
Brokers Move Targets, Not Ratings
Analysts have been busy, though their enthusiasm stops short of a buy signal. Deutsche Bank Research raised its price target to 22 euros from 18 on Thursday while keeping a "Hold" rating, according to dpa-AFX. Berenberg had already lifted its own target from 20.00 to 22.50 euros on Wednesday, also maintaining "Hold." Analyst Sebastian Bray pointed to Evonik's strong cash position as an added attraction.
JPMorgan took a different route on Wednesday, nudging its target from 14 to 15 euros but leaving Evonik at "Underweight." The DZ Bank moved in the opposite direction on ratings, cutting the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" while citing a 22-euro target.
The pattern is telling: targets are climbing, but conviction is not. A higher price objective paired with a neutral or negative rating implies analysts see limited upside from here — or, in JPMorgan's case, see the current price as already generous.
Evonik at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Has to Go Right
For the standalone thesis to hold, Evonik needs to convert its third-quarter momentum into a full-year delivery. The upper half of the EBITDA range is the test, and the free cash flow guidance of around 850 million euros is the proof point that the business can fund itself without a parent company's balance sheet.
The risk cuts both ways. If earnings hold, the case for independence strengthens and the 24-euro bid looks like an opening offer the board was right to refuse. If the numbers wobble, the rejection becomes a liability — and investors would be left absorbing both disappointed earnings expectations and the fading hope of a takeover premium.
Any fresh signal on the confidential exchange with BASF could reset the calculus, particularly if it points to a concrete next step rather than a courtesy conversation. Until then, the standalone story rests on one number above all: whether Evonik hits the upper half of its 2.0 to 2.2 billion euro EBITDA range. That is where the argument for saying no will be won or lost.
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