Evonik's Dual Track: A Sweetened BASF Bid Meets a $3.3 Billion US Detour
Published on 10/23/2026 at 15:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik shares climbed 3.8% today after Bloomberg reported that BASF has raised its takeover offer, with the revised proposal also carrying guarantees on jobs and production sites. The advance reflects the improved price tag, not any acceptance by Evonik — Reuters noted the specialty chemicals group declined to comment on the sweetened bid, leaving investors to separate a better offer from an actual agreement.
The distinction matters. A higher price improves the terms on the table; it does not signal a deal between the two companies. BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth added concrete language to the guarantees reported by Bloomberg, stating in a video message yesterday that BASF would honor Evonik's existing site agreements in the event of a takeover and that compulsory redundancies would be ruled out until 2032. Those commitments — which also include at least one board department remaining in Essen and a strengthened research and development presence in North Rhine-Westphalia — frame the approach but do not substitute for Evonik's consent.
A Separate Shopping List in the US
Running alongside the takeover drama is Evonik's own possible transaction. Reuters reported yesterday that the company is weighing an acquisition of US chemicals rival Ashland, a process that began before BASF's approach and remains at an early stage. Ashland carries a market valuation of $3.3 billion — a stock market figure, not an agreed purchase price — and Evonik is one of several parties to have made contact, alongside Advent, Apollo and Carlyle. Insiders stressed the sale process is not a "poison pill," which argues against reading it as a defensive maneuver. Still, an economically attractive opportunity and a complication for BASF's plans need not be mutually exclusive, and investors would be wise to judge the two effects separately.
Multiple interested parties can limit the room for a bargain, so a deal should not be booked as value creation in advance. The decisive test is the price Evonik would ultimately pay against the expected economic benefit — an acquisition would not be attractive merely because it might raise BASF's cost of doing a deal, nor detrimental simply because it complicates a takeover of Evonik.
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Berenberg's Cautious Upgrade
Analyst Sebastian Bray at Berenberg upgraded Evonik from Sell to Hold on October 5, lifting his price target to €20 from €15.50. His reasoning is central to the outlook: takeover talks could form a floor under the shares in the coming months. The stock closed yesterday at €20.70, down 1.1% on the day — a reminder that the takeover chatter has not prevented losses, and that no market endorsement of a specific transaction can be inferred from the price.
Bray also flagged falling prices for methionine products. A potential share-price floor from merger discussions does not remove that operational headwind, and if expectations of a deal come to carry the valuation, every piece of news about actual progress grows in importance. Kamieth, for his part, said a combination would not happen at any price and depends on BASF's shareholders — job and site pledges are no substitute for agreement on economic terms.
The RAG Foundation's Pivotal Stake
The RAG Foundation holds roughly 43% of Evonik and has announced plans to cut its stake to 25.1%. That intention implies no endorsement of any particular takeover solution. On the favorable side, Kamieth pointed to synergies in precursors, procurement, infrastructure and research, with Evonik potentially sourcing certain inputs from BASF more cheaply, directly and reliably — advantages that would still need to be captured in a workable agreement.
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Weighing the two tracks, a costly Ashland purchase that hampers BASF's approach without a sufficiently convincing standalone rationale would mark the unfavorable scenario, particularly if takeover talks stall and investors refocus on operational pressures. Should BASF's interest stay credible and a possible Ashland deal show economic discipline, both developments could reinforce Evonik's strategic room to maneuver.
The next tangible catalysts are a decision on opening negotiations with BASF or a clearer picture of the Ashland review. Either would give the valuation firmer ground than general expressions of interest. BASF has signaled willingness to talk; Evonik is weighing a purchase. Neither step equates to a completed deal — and for investors, the measure is not which transaction is larger, but which solution can genuinely create value on price, benefit and the consent of all involved.
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