Evonik's RAG-Stiftung Hurdle: Why BASF's Sweetened €24 Bid Still Isn't a Deal

Evonik's near-44% anchor shareholder, the Essen-based RAG-Stiftung, holds the deciding vote in what has become a two-front corporate contest — and neither front has produced a signed agreement. BASF has raised its offer, Evonik is exploring a US acquisition of its own, and the stock continues to trade below the bid on the table.

A Higher Number, Not a Handshake

Reuters sources reported Friday that BASF lifted its proposal to €24 per Evonik share, valuing the specialty chemicals group at roughly €11.18 billion. The earlier approach of about €22.15 per share had been rebuffed by Evonik's management as too low.

That escalation marks a second attempt, not a resolution. An offer price and an accepted offer are separate stages in any takeover, and no confirmed approval from Evonik can be inferred from the reported advance. The market's positioning reflects that gap: Evonik shares changed hands at €21.16 on the day, well beneath the discussed bid, putting the company's market capitalization at €9.78 billion. The prior session's close of €21.24 told the same story — a share price sitting below a takeover price whose implementation remains unagreed.

Kamieth's Package: Generous, but Conditional

To soften resistance from major shareholders, unions and politicians, BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth outlined a broad set of commitments in a video message on Thursday. Bloomberg reported that BASF would honor existing employment guarantees through 2032 in the event of a takeover.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?

The list extends further. BASF has dangled protection against compulsory redundancies until 2032, continuation of existing collective bargaining and site agreements, retention of Essen as a location with at least one board seat, and the possible continuation of chemical parks at Marl and Wesseling. The operative qualifier remains "in the event of a takeover" — these are announced intentions for a scenario that has not been agreed, not confirmation of a closing or of Evonik's acceptance.

Evonik's Own Move: Ashland, and Two Banks

While fending off BASF, Evonik is preparing a counterweight of its own. According to the Handelsblatt, the Essen-based group is examining an acquisition of US specialty chemicals company Ashland, a specialist in personal-care ingredients. Perella Weinberg and JP Morgan have been mandated to push the potential purchase forward, a step aimed at reducing Evonik's dependence on the European market.

Timing matters here. Reuters reported that the Ashland review began before BASF's approach, which undercuts any reading of the two situations as a fixed sequence of events. The US target had already drawn attention from financial investors in late summer, when several private equity houses signaled interest in the American company. For Evonik, an acquisition would offer a route to strengthen its portfolio in higher-margin specialty segments beyond its home region — and potentially complicate BASF's plans while shoring up the MDAX group's independence.

Evonik at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Two Tracks, One Calendar

The capital market is watching the standoff with restraint, and the structural facts explain why. Evonik is simultaneously the object of a takeover approach and the potential acquirer of another company; neither transaction is agreed. Layered on top is Evonik's own cost-cutting and restructuring program, which targets the elimination of around 3,200 positions worldwide by the end of 2029.

The next hard date for investors is November 3, 2026, when third-quarter results are scheduled for release. Until then, the defensible reading is straightforward: a raised bid, a conditional employment pledge, and an in-house acquisition review are three distinct matters. None of them substitutes for confirmation of a negotiated deal — and the decisive say rests with the company's governing bodies and the RAG-Stiftung.

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