Evonik's Two-Way Street: A €24 Bid on One Side, a $3.3 Billion US Target on the Other

Evonik shareholders are being asked to weigh two competing visions of the company's future at once. On one side sits BASF's sweetened takeover approach; on the other, Evonik's own long-running hunt for a major American acquisition. Neither track is settled, and progress on one says little about the other.

BASF has raised its offer to €24 per share, according to Reuters, valuing Evonik at roughly €11.18 billion. The report, citing people familiar with the negotiations, put the total volume at more than €11 billion. Evonik has said it will examine the proposal. Neither Evonik nor the RAG-Stiftung, its anchor shareholder, commented on the terms — silence that signals neither acceptance nor rejection.

The stock climbed 3.4% on Friday to close at €21.40, still below the reported offer price. That gap matters for anyone reading the rally as a locked-in return: the higher figure would only reach shareholders' pockets if a transaction actually closes.

Price Was Never the Only Objection

Evonik already turned down a BASF bid worth €10.3 billion in September, calling it too low. Price was the stated reason then, but it is not the only hurdle now. North Rhine-Westphalia has made clear that neither Evonik's jobs nor its independence should be put at risk — and those are two separate demands.

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BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth addressed one of them on Thursday, saying in a video message that existing job-security agreements would be honored in the event of a takeover. Reuters also reported commitments to protect production sites. These statements sharpen BASF's position, yet they do not amount to a decision by Evonik, and job guarantees are not the same as a pledge to preserve the company's standalone status. No agreement on that point has been confirmed.

A Chemical Logic Behind the US Detour

The strategic gap between the two sides is visible in Evonik's own dealmaking ambitions. Handelsblatt reported on Thursday that Evonik has been weighing larger US acquisitions, with a particular interest in Ashland, and has mandated Perella Weinberg Partners and JPMorgan for the effort. Reuters reported the same day that Evonik is examining a purchase and ranks among several potential suitors. Ashland carries a valuation of about $3.3 billion.

The review is at an early stage and a deal is not certain. Crucially, the interest predates BASF's approach, so it cannot simply be framed as a counter-move to the takeover push. A combination would bring together complementary product lines in coating and formulation additives. BASF, for its part, considers the Ashland plan too risky, according to Reuters. The takeover rumor weighed on Evonik shares, dpa-AFX reported.

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What Investors Should Actually Watch

The decisive test is the credibility of the whole package — price alongside the reported commitments on jobs and sites. Attractive financial terms paired with acceptable protections for employees and locations could make an agreement easier to reach. That would ease uncertainty over Evonik's stance and give the reported price more weight as a valuation anchor.

The reverse scenario carries its own risk. If the reported terms fail to produce an understanding, the offer price could lose its pull as a benchmark, leaving anyone who bought purely on takeover hopes especially exposed. A confirmation that Evonik is examining the bid would carry less signal than an agreement on the substance; what counts is demonstrable progress toward a deal, not a restatement of the terms. The next catalyst would be a statement from Evonik on its review, or further clarification from the parties involved.

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