Evotec's Science Outshines Its Balance Sheet as Berenberg Stays on the Fence
Published on 09/27/2026 at 12:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Berenberg has reaffirmed its "Hold" rating on Evotec, keeping a price target of 3.60 EUR on the Hamburg-based drug discovery specialist. The call, issued Friday, captures the central tension facing the company: world-class scientific capability weighed down by a commercial overhaul that has yet to prove itself.
Analyst Christian Ehmann pointed to the ongoing commercial realignment and delayed milestone payments as the chief reasons for caution. Both factors, he argued, will keep revenue visibility clouded for the foreseeable future.
Horizon Runs on Schedule, but the Market Wants More
At the heart of the transition is Horizon, Evotec's internal restructuring program. Management insists the initiative is proceeding according to plan and will deliver leaner, more efficient structures. Chief Financial Officer Claire Hinshelwood, speaking at an industry conference roughly a week ago, said business indicators are moving in the right direction.
Yet convincing investors requires more than operational assurances. Hinshelwood identified the real challenge as one of narrative rather than science: the company must sharpen the market's understanding of how its research services, biologics unit, and strategic partnerships fit together. The scientific expertise and operating model, she suggested, are not the problem.
First-Half Numbers Lay Bare the Strain
The case for restructuring is written plainly in the first-half 2026 results. Evotec booked revenue of 300.1 million EUR, while adjusted EBITDA came in at minus 42.7 million EUR.
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Those losses prompted the company to confirm a reduced full-year outlook about a month ago. Management now guides for 2026 revenue of between 570 and 610 million EUR, with adjusted operating profit expected to remain deeply negative for the year as a whole.
Pipeline Momentum Offers a Counterweight
Against the financial drag, the operating side continues to deliver incremental wins. Just – Evotec Biologics launched a Phase I trial for JST-018, an antibody program targeting orthopoxviruses, roughly a week ago. The study marks a first-in-human application under a U.S. Department of Defense program, with production running through a continuous bioprocessing platform at the company's Redmond, Washington facility.
Partnership activity has also picked up. Evotec struck a research collaboration with Plectonic Biotech focused on solid tumors about a month ago, following an earlier alliance with Odyssey Therapeutics in autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. These deals broaden the scientific foundation, though their financial payoff will take time to materialize.
A Stock That Reflects the Uncertainty
The market's verdict has been unambiguous. Evotec shares closed Friday at 2.79 EUR, down 49% since the start of the year. During the session, the stock touched a fresh 52-week low of 2.71 EUR before recovering slightly into the close.
Any rally has been short-lived, with profit-taking setting in quickly once it becomes clear that hard evidence of a sustainable turnaround in operating earnings is still missing.
November 5 Looms Large
The next real test arrives in late autumn. Evotec has scheduled the release of its interim report for the third quarter and the first nine months of the current fiscal year on November 5. That disclosure will force management to demonstrate whether Horizon's efficiency measures are gaining traction and whether milestone planning has become more predictable.
Until then, shareholders face a familiar waiting game. As long as delayed milestones weigh on the numbers and the restructuring has yet to translate into profitable growth, concrete improvements in earnings will be the deciding factor for any lasting recovery in the share price.
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