Gold's ETF Engine Stalls After 13 Weeks as Official Buyers Play a Longer Game
Published on 10/27/2026 at 13:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Physically backed gold ETFs have snapped a 13-week run of net inflows, shedding $1.21 billion in the week through Friday, according to World Gold Council figures. The reversal removes a key source of demand that had been underpinning the metal, and it lands at an awkward moment: rule-based funds are leaning short, and the Federal Reserve's next decision is still pending.
The weekly arithmetic tells the story. Redemptions of $3.01 billion swamped $1.80 billion of fresh allocations. American investors did most of the damage, pulling $1.7 billion out of US-listed funds, while vehicles in the UK, Switzerland and Germany continued to attract money. That split matters — this was not a uniform global exit from bullion, but the new money simply wasn't enough to offset the withdrawals.
Systematic sellers pile on
TD Securities analysts Ryan McKay and Bart Melek point to another layer of pressure: so-called CTAs, or commodity trading advisors, are positioned for falling prices across every trading signal they track. Their selling, combined with ETF outflows — particularly in China — has weighed on the market. Yet the same positioning could become the seed of a rebound. Above $4,092 an ounce, CTAs might start covering their shorts, the analysts reckon. Spot gold settled at $4,009.86, still below that trigger.
That is a condition, not a forecast with a timetable. Central bank purchases, in TD's view, underpin the longer-term outlook.
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The weakness can't be pinned on US monetary policy expectations alone. Some holders are liquidating gold to offset losses from the technology-stock selloff, Bloomberg reported. Higher oil prices and worries about further rate hikes have added to the drag.
Official buyers: more than the headline numbers
Sovereign reserve managers remain a structural support, even if they can't stop short-term slides. Goldman Sachs estimates official purchases using trade and capital-flow data, and its figure runs above the net buying reported by the World Gold Council — a sign that some demand never shows up in official disclosures. Asian countries were the largest identifiable buyers, with estimated purchases of 25 tonnes in August against 20 tonnes officially reported. The gap underscores that these are estimates, not a fully confirmed inventory.
The picture is far from uniform. Russia's gold reserves fell by roughly 6.2 tonnes in September, taking the decline since January 2026 to about 62 tonnes. Poland, by contrast, is still building toward its holdings target. Nor should the relocation of existing stock — a shift spanning six months — be mistaken for new demand: moving metal between storage locations doesn't enlarge reserves, and neither does shuffling holdings between custodians.
Two views on the recovery
Amundi's Lorenzo Portelli argues the worst-case scenario is already priced in and expects a rebound toward about $4,500 an ounce. The firm's earlier year-end target of $5,000 now looks unlikely, he concedes. Long-term hedging demand and central bank buying are the props he cites — a thesis that concerns different buyers and a longer horizon than the weekly fund flows.
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BCA Research strategist Roukaya Ibrahim takes a cooler line. Gold looks technically oversold, she says, but she expects range-bound trading rather than a sharp recovery. Sticky inflation and a likely strong dollar through year-end cap the upside. A more favourable backdrop may not arrive until early 2027, when central bank and private demand could carry more weight — perhaps if concerns about US finances deepen.
For now, the case for a durable turn rests mainly on systematic selling running its course, not on any confirmed return of ETF demand. Reuters notes that attention is also fixed on US inflation data due after the Fed meeting. Until the flows turn, the metal's floor is official — but its ceiling is still a matter of positioning.
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