Gold's Official-Sector Bid Meets a Firmer Dollar as Forecasters Trim Their Targets
Published on 11/08/2026 at 12:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold ended Friday at USD 4,063.65 an ounce, weighed down by a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields after US payrolls came in hotter than expected. The October report, published by the US Department of Labor, showed 165,000 nonfarm jobs created and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Reuters reported that the data reinforced expectations of a longer stretch of high interest rates, with traders also pricing a greater chance of a December hike.
The move capped a week that had briefly run the other way. After the US midterm elections, a softer dollar, falling Treasury yields and retreating oil prices had eased inflation worries and helped the metal recover. Friday's employment report undercut that relief.
A split demand picture beneath the headline
Against the rate-driven headwind sits a more nuanced set of demand signals. The World Gold Council reported worldwide gold demand including over-the-counter business of 1,369 tonnes, down 1% year on year. Within that total, central banks and other official institutions bought a net 321 tonnes — 42% more than a year earlier — while gold ETFs recorded inflows of 211 tonnes.
The official-sector buying prompted the council to raise its assessment of central bank purchases. Its view on private investment went the other way: weaker demand for bars and coins led it to cut its forecast for growth in gold investment demand to around 200 tonnes for 2026, half the 400 tonnes previously expected.
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ETF flows offset the futures retreat
Physically backed gold funds offered further support in October. According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs took in USD 2.7 billion during the month, lifting holdings by 19 tonnes to 4,275 tonnes. Europe led the inflows, providing a counterweight to the drag from higher US yields.
Positioning in the derivatives market was more cautious. COMEX net long positions fell by 94 tonnes in October to 560 tonnes, meaning the build in physically backed fund holdings coincided with a pullback in futures exposure.
The next tests on the calendar
Two scheduled releases now frame the debate. The US consumer price index for October is due on 10 November 2026 at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time. Because inflation shapes expectations for the Federal Reserve — and through them the dollar and Treasury yields — the print could either reinforce the case for further tightening or let some of the pressure off.
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The November employment report follows on 4 December at 8:30 a.m. ET, with investors again watching whether hiring strength sustains the case for rates staying high.
The World Gold Council on Tuesday flagged rising interest rates and uneven inflation expectations as possible headwinds through year-end, while geopolitical risks and financial market stress could support demand. For now, the metal is caught between two opposing forces: official-sector and fund buying on one side, and the pull of US yields on the other. Which of them the coming data endorses will set the tone.
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