Gold's Seven-Day Run Meets a Hawkish Wall as Forecasters Trim Their Targets
Published on 11/06/2026 at 07:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold's recent momentum is colliding with a familiar obstacle: the prospect of US interest rates staying higher for longer. After a rally that lifted the metal 5.5% over seven sessions, fresh gains stalled early today as firmer oil prices revived inflation worries and reinforced expectations of a prolonged period of tight Federal Reserve policy, Reuters reported.
The pullback follows a solid session in which bullion settled at USD 4,088.36 an ounce, up 0.7% on the day. That advance had been powered by a softer dollar and lower Treasury yields, with earlier declines in crude easing price-pressure concerns. The swift reversal underscores how tightly gold's short-term path is now tethered to energy costs and rate expectations.
A Political Shift Lends a Hand
Behind the latest leg higher sits a change in Washington. Investors are betting that the Democratic sweep in the US midterms will impose tighter constraints on President Trump's spending and borrowing plans, a view that has weighed on the dollar and pushed Treasury yields lower. Cheaper oil has simultaneously fuelled hopes that inflation pressure is easing and that the Fed may not need to tighten as aggressively.
Equities are pulling gold in two directions at once. The flight into safe-haven government debt compresses yields and supports bullion, yet when investors need to raise cash they sometimes sell the metal too. Worries over stricter AI regulation and a slower build-out of data centres have contributed to that selling pressure.
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How far the political shift actually reshapes fiscal policy depends on negotiations between Congress and the Trump administration. For gold, the tailwind therefore persists mainly for as long as the dollar and yields remain under pressure.
Forecasters Take a Knife to Their Targets
Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 gold forecast to USD 4,150 an ounce yesterday, down from USD 4,650, citing the Fed's more restrictive stance. The bank also lowered its end-2027 projection to USD 4,800 from USD 5,400. Capital Economics flagged limited room for further gains, pointing to the same hawkish Fed posture and potential weakness in technology shares.
BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim sees a period of sideways trading ahead. In an assessment published today, she described gold as technically oversold following October's selloff and identified USD 4,000 an ounce as critical support. She remains cautious near term, warning that inflation and monetary policy could generate headwinds, and expects a relatively strong dollar through the end of 2026. A more favourable macroeconomic backdrop could emerge in early 2027, she added, provided the dollar and inflation both cool.
Central bank purchases are a pillar of her outlook, though she sees private investment demand as the potentially larger catalyst. She and her colleagues also cautioned about near-term selling pressure from margin calls and the unwinding of leveraged positions should equity markets fall sharply, while long-term private investors and central banks remain important sources of support.
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Official Buyers Offset the Rate Drag
On the demand side, heavy purchases by official institutions stand against the rate risk. The World Gold Council reported Tuesday that central banks and other official bodies bought a net 321 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, while physically backed gold ETFs drew inflows of 211 tonnes. The picture is uneven, however: jewellery demand and purchases of bars and coins both declined even as official buyers and funds added metal.
Payrolls Hold the Next Clue
Attention now turns to the US employment report due at 13:30 GMT, which could reshape expectations for the Fed's next move. The Dow Jones consensus cited by CNBC points to 59,000 nonfarm jobs added in October, up from 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.2%. Softer hiring and wage figures could dampen expectations of further tightening and extend gold's recovery; robust numbers could bolster rate-hike bets and the dollar. The durability of the rebound hinges on whether relief across inflation, yields and the currency holds.
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