Goldman Sachs Steps to the Sidelines on Almonty as Buyback and Three-Continent Expansion Collide
Published on 09/24/2026 at 14:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Almonty Industries on Monday with a neutral rating and a 13.00 US-dollar price target, injecting a note of caution into a stock that has already climbed 51% since the start of the year. The call lands squarely between far more bullish views on Wall Street and puts the tungsten producer's operational execution — not its resource base — under the microscope.
At the heart of the Goldman thesis is the metal itself. Tungsten prices have octupled since the beginning of 2025, a run the bank expects to cool over the medium term. Fresh mine supply, rising recycling volumes and expanding refinery capacity are all cited as forces that should erode the current pricing premium. The analysts also flag that the ramp-up at Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea is proceeding more slowly than the market had been assuming.
That stance sits in sharp contrast to rival houses. D.A. Davidson carries the shares with a buy recommendation and a 33.00 US-dollar target, while Jefferies also rates the stock "Buy" with a 26.25 US-dollar objective. The gap between 13.00 and 33.00 dollars lays bare how differently the Street is judging both the pace of the mine ramp and the durability of tungsten prices.
A Supply Story Built on Geography
The bull case rests on more than spot prices. Roughly 80% of global tungsten supply is controlled by China, and from 2027 the United States will impose restrictions on procurement for defense goods — a shift that pushes Western suppliers into the spotlight. Tungsten's hardness and heat resistance make it indispensable for defense applications and industry alike, and Almonty is positioning itself as the non-Chinese alternative.
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That positioning is now visible across three continents. In South Korea, the company received final operating certification for the processing and crushing facilities at Sangdong just over a week ago, clearing the way for full commercial production of tungsten concentrate. In Western Spain, Almonty signed a long-term offtake agreement with Wolfram Bergbau und Hütten AG, a Sandvik Group subsidiary, covering the reprocessing of tailings at the Los Santos mine. The deal uses a take-or-pay structure and includes a 3.0 million US-dollar prepayment for offtake rights, with at least roughly 1,720 tonnes of contained WO? contractually covered. The partnership also spans ore and tailings processing and takes in an exploration block of about 32 square kilometers.
East Africa rounds out the map. Almonty Rwanda Pty Ltd will be 25% owned by the state, which is transferring the Shyorongi exploration concession and an ore-processing license to the joint venture in return. The arrangement adds mining resources on the African continent and is designed to reduce future supply-chain risk.
Capital Returns Meet a Richer Valuation
On the corporate side, the board authorized a share buyback program for 2026 more than a month ago, permitting the repurchase of up to 14,400,000 common shares for a total of up to 300,000,000 US dollars — roughly 5% of the outstanding shares.
The market has taken note of the shifting analyst landscape. In German trading, the stock changed hands at 11.88 euros, down 0.8% on the day, as Goldman's more measured view weighed on sentiment. At a current price of 11.96 euros, Almonty's market capitalization stands at 2.73 billion euros. Whether the production ramp and offtake agreements can sustain earnings at the targeted level will become clear in the quarterly reports still to come.
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