HelloFresh Cuts Guidance Again as Weak Back-to-School Demand Bites
Published on 09/25/2026 at 18:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
HelloFresh has trimmed its full-year outlook for a second time in 2026, blaming a softer-than-expected start to the autumn selling season for a shortfall that has rattled investors. The Berlin-based meal-kit provider disclosed the downgrade on Thursday, and the market's response has been swift: the stock shed 5.7% to EUR 2.31 in Friday trading, with some venues reporting an even steeper 9.8% decline to EUR 2.21 as the session wore on.
Revenue and Earnings Targets Pulled Lower
Management now expects currency-adjusted revenue to contract by 9% to 11% across the whole of 2026. That marks a sharp revision from the 3% to 6% decline previously guided, and it reflects how quickly conditions have deteriorated since the last update.
Profitability has taken a corresponding hit. The company is now steering toward adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of EUR 350 million to EUR 370 million — well below the EUR 375 million to EUR 425 million range it had communicated earlier.
The trigger, according to the company, was disappointing customer acquisition during the back-to-school window, a seasonally critical stretch for the business. HelloFresh pointed to marketing budgets that were cut more aggressively year-on-year in the third quarter, a move that curbed the flow of new subscribers more than internal forecasts had assumed.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hellofresh?
Third Quarter Falls Short of Street View
The current three-month period tells its own story. HelloFresh anticipates a currency-adjusted revenue decline of 11% to 12% for the third quarter of 2026 compared with the prior-year figure. That lands well beneath the roughly 6.8% contraction analysts had penciled in, underscoring the scale of the miss.
Jefferies Sticks With Buy Rating
Not everyone has turned bearish. Jefferies reiterated its "Buy" recommendation on the shares on Thursday, with analyst Giles Thorne keeping a price target of EUR 8.35. Even so, Thorne described the preliminary figures released ahead of the quarterly report as disappointing and warned they are likely to weigh further on market sentiment.
The stock has been under pressure for much of the year. Year-to-date losses now amount to 62%, a decline that speaks to persistent doubts about the company's growth trajectory.
Ownership Fund Adds Shares
Separately, the Active Ownership Fund SICAV SIF SCS acquired HelloFresh stock off-exchange on 16 September, following the exercise of options. The aggregate value of that transaction came to EUR 832,920, at a price of EUR 4.40 per share.
Investors will get the full picture in late autumn. HelloFresh has scheduled the release of its complete third-quarter results, along with figures for the first nine months of fiscal 2026, for 5 November.
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