Mercedes-Benz Buyback Rolls On as Analysts Split and China Strategy Awaits Rewrite
Published on 11/02/2026 at 16:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz kept its share repurchase programme running last week, picking up 904,601 of its own shares. Since the buyback began on 1 September, the cumulative total had reached 7,391,990 shares by Friday. The disclosure lands alongside a decidedly more cautious analyst chorus — and a strategy question in China that management has yet to answer.
Targets trimmed, verdicts unchanged
Deutsche Bank Research cut its price target on Thursday from 70 to 65 euros but stuck with its Buy rating. Oddo BHF moved in the same direction, lowering its target from 36 to 32 euros while keeping its Underperform call. Other houses also marked their targets down while retaining neutral stances. The common thread is a more guarded valuation, not a shared conclusion: recommendations still stretch from Buy to an expected below-market performance.
The shares trade at €40.83, below even the reduced Deutsche Bank target. Analyst Tim Rokossa, who met finance chief Harald Wilhelm at an event, described the prevailing tone as cautious, with China and next year's results singled out as the focal points. The expected adjusted return on sales for the car division sits at 2–3% for 2026 — a figure trimmed in the profit warning issued roughly a week earlier.
A quarter that cuts both ways
Wednesday's figures give both camps something to work with. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 came in at €30.7 billion, down from €32.1 billion a year earlier. Group EBIT, by contrast, climbed to €1.77 billion from €0.75 billion, and net profit rose to €1.52 billion from €1.19 billion. Higher earnings on shrinking turnover is the shape of the quarter.
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That improvement does not erase the burdens management has flagged. The full-year guidance, cut about a week ago, now points to group EBIT merely matching the prior year rather than posting a clear increase. Mercedes blamed a tougher market environment in China and higher costs in the closing quarter — which is why the stronger third quarter cannot simply be extrapolated across the rest of the year.
China stays the proving ground
Reuters reported on Wednesday that Mercedes intends to overhaul its China strategy, with concrete results due in early 2027. CEO Ola Källenius said the company is preparing a broader strategy update covering 2030 and beyond, with China set to remain a central pillar. The same day brought word of a fresh voluntary severance programme for indirect functions in Germany, opening in December 2026.
An open seat at the finance helm
Continuity in the finance department is another live question. Harald Wilhelm's term ends in March 2027, and Mercedes has so far announced neither an extension nor a successor. Wilhelm has overseen finance and controlling since 2019. Media reports float a one-year extension as well as Olaf Schick or Christina Schenck as possible scenarios; none has been confirmed. For investors, the personnel question is an added layer of uncertainty rather than a settled change at the top of the finance function.
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Set against all of this, the buyback is a different kind of signal — evidence that the programme is being executed, but no answer to Rokossa's questions about the operating trajectory. The picture that emerges is a company with a documented earnings gain, a share price below the bulls' target, and strategic answers on China still pending.
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