Mercedes-Benz Buyout Plan Lands in December 2026 as Analysts Split on What the Stock Is Worth
Published on 11/02/2026 at 12:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz will launch a fresh voluntary severance programme for indirect functions in Germany starting December 2026, the company confirmed this week — a cost measure whose financial payoff is still years from being booked, and one that arrives alongside a set of analyst notes pointing in markedly different directions.
The price-target revisions rolled in across two days and tell their own story. Deutsche Bank Research trimmed its target from EUR 70 to EUR 65 on Thursday while keeping a Buy rating. DZ Bank followed on Friday, cutting its fair value from EUR 55 to EUR 48 but likewise sticking with its Buy call. UBS moved the same day as Deutsche Bank, lowering its target from EUR 45.00 to EUR 42.50 and holding at Neutral. Oddo BHF went the other way on conviction, reducing its target from EUR 36 to EUR 32 while maintaining an Underperform view. Several other houses marked their targets down as well but stayed neutral.
The spread between the highest and lowest targets — EUR 65 versus EUR 32 — is the real signal here. A lower target does not automatically mean a negative verdict on the equity; the gap between recommendations shows how far apart the houses are on how durable the earnings recovery actually is.
A quarter that cut both ways
The third-quarter 2026 figures, published Wednesday, give both camps something to work with. Revenue came in at EUR 30.7 billion, down from EUR 32.1 billion a year earlier. Yet group EBIT climbed to EUR 1.77 billion from EUR 0.75 billion, and net profit rose to EUR 1.52 billion from EUR 1.19 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Mercedes-Benz?
Falling sales paired with a sharply higher bottom line is the tension at the heart of the debate. It argues for looking at volume and reported profit separately rather than treating the headline gain as a clean all-clear.
DZ Bank analyst Michael Punzet flagged persistent weakness in China as the drag on the passenger-car business and the reason behind his forecast cut, though he conceded the quarterly numbers came in slightly ahead of expectations. That modest beat was not enough to justify keeping the prior valuation.
The guidance behind the caution
Roughly a week before the results, Mercedes-Benz had already lowered its full-year outlook, citing a tougher market environment in China and higher costs in the closing quarter, including material expenses. For Mercedes-Benz Cars, the company now expects an adjusted return on sales of 2–3%. Group EBIT is projected to land at the prior-year level — not the marked increase previously implied. Free cash flow from the industrial business is set to come in well below last year's figure.
That last line matters as much as the margin. The pressure is not confined to passenger-car profitability; expected cash generation is weaker too, which is why earnings and cash deserve equal weight when sizing up the stock.
China strategy and the February test
CEO Ola Källenius said the group is preparing a broader strategy update covering 2030 and beyond, with China remaining a central pillar. Reuters reported Wednesday that Mercedes-Benz intends to rework its China strategy and present concrete results in early 2027. UBS analyst Patrick Hummel, who expects the strategy overhaul to surface at the full-year results in February, pointed to the role of China and the company's investment plans as the items to watch — pushing the focus past any single quarter toward how management sets priorities under harder conditions.
Until that February presentation, the split in analyst ratings captures the same trade-off: Buy recommendations persist even as lower valuation anchors account for the operational strain. A more convincing case will need more than a slight quarterly beat — how Mercedes handles China, where it directs investment, and how cash flow develops are the yardsticks that matter now.
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