Moderna's Cancer Vaccine Hits Its Marks. Citi Still Says Sell.

Published on 10/26/2026 at 05:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de

TD Cowen lifted its Moderna target to $90 from $40 but kept Hold; Citi reaffirmed Sell at $80, questioning if the benefit justifies bespoke manufacturing.

Moderna Melanoma Data Splits Analysts: TD Cowen Hikes Target, Citi Stays Sell — Moderna's Cancer Vaccine Hits Its Marks. Citi Still Says Sell. Illustration mit AI erstellt.

Moderna's melanoma programme delivered the efficacy numbers it promised. Two analysts looked at the same dataset this week and reached opposite conclusions about what those numbers are worth — and the gap between them is where the real story sits.

TD Cowen raised its price target on the stock to $90 from $40 on Wednesday, according to media reports, while keeping its rating at "Hold." The higher target did not come with a buy recommendation attached. Citi, by contrast, reaffirmed its Sell rating and $80 price target on Friday, questioning whether the clinical benefit of a personalised treatment justifies the cost of producing it.

What the trial actually showed

The detailed Phase III results for INTerpath-001, which surfaced on Thursday ahead of their planned presentation, covered 1,137 patients with fully resected melanoma. Intismeran autogene combined with Merck's Keytruda cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% versus Keytruda alone, and reduced the risk of distant metastasis or death by 38%. The companies reported a hazard ratio of 0.58 and a p-value below 0.001 for the recurrence-or-death endpoint. Median follow-up stood at 24.6 months.

That the comparison was against an active treatment — pembrolizumab, sold as Keytruda — rather than an untreated group matters for how the result should be read. The benefit is incremental, measured against a therapy that already works.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Moderna?

Reuters linked the sharp share-price slide that followed the leak to both the data themselves and to elevated expectations heading into the release. Moderna shares shed a further 1.1% on Friday to close at €178.76.

The manufacturing question Citi is asking

Citi's scepticism does not dispute that a benefit exists. It targets the relationship between that benefit and the practical demands of the treatment — specifically, whether the advantage is large enough to justify harvesting tumour material from individual patients and manufacturing a bespoke therapy for each one.

That distinction separates two debates that are easily conflated. A clinical result answers a medical question; whether it clears the bar the market has set is a separate calculation. Personalised therapies sharpen the tension: the more closely a treatment is tailored to the individual, the more the manufacturing burden sits alongside the efficacy data in any investment case.

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