Nel ASA: A Hydrogen Pure-Play Caught Between a Swelling Pipeline and a Shrinking Balance Sheet
Published on 08/06/2026 at 18:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of Nel ASA's current situation is hard to reconcile. New orders are flooding in at a pace the Norwegian hydrogen company hasn't seen in years, yet the market's response has been a steady grind lower. On the Oslo exchange, the stock slipped 6.03 percent on Monday to NOK 2.18, erasing a prior session's 9.02 percent gain and pushing the shares below their 38-day moving average — a technical threshold that chart-watchers read as a fading of short-term momentum. In German trading, the equity was changing hands at €0.1986 on Thursday, up 0.40 percent on the day, but still sitting 11.38 percent beneath its 50-day average and roughly 45 percent off its 52-week peak.
The gap to that high-water mark is even starker when measured in euros: the stock's 52-week top of €0.3655, set on May 25, now lies nearly 47 percent above the current price. An automated quantitative service nudged its rating from "Sell" to "Hold/Accumulate" on Wednesday, though the move was purely mechanical — a function of price positioning rather than any fresh fundamental conviction. JPMorgan, by contrast, took the opposite tack, trimming its price target from NOK 2.90 to NOK 1.80 while keeping a "Neutral" stance. The Relative Strength Index sits at 38.9, pointing to persistent weakness without yet flashing an oversold signal.
Orders Surge, Revenue Contracts
The second-quarter numbers, released on July 15, lay bare the divergence driving the share price. Order intake exploded to NOK 230 million, a 224 percent jump from the NOK 71 million booked in the same period last year, with a remarkable 96 percent of that inflow concentrated in the PEM electrolyser segment. The order backlog consequently swelled to NOK 1.213 billion, up 9 percent quarter-on-quarter — evidence that the sales pipeline is filling even as the income statement shrinks.
Because the revenue picture is decidedly less flattering. Customer contract revenue fell 12 percent year-on-year to NOK 153 million, down from NOK 174 million, while total revenue reached NOK 182 million. EBITDA swung to a loss of NOK 155 million, a figure that includes a NOK 70 million one-time charge tied to the settlement of a legal dispute with Iwatani Corporation of America over hydrogen refuelling equipment, reached in early June. The company's cash position stood at NOK 1.328 billion at the end of June — a meaningful buffer, but one that has eroded by roughly NOK 600 million over twelve months from NOK 1.928 billion, underscoring how sustained losses and litigation have eaten into reserves.
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A Leadership Vacuum and a Technology Bet
Adding to the uncertainty is a transition at the top. CEO HĂĄkon Volldal announced his resignation in June to take a role at Elopak, remaining in place through a six-month notice period while the board searches for a successor. The question of who will steward Nel's strategy through this operational rough patch is one investors are increasingly asking, particularly with the company's second-largest shareholder, Samsung E&A, holding 9.09 percent of the shares (167,155,785 in total) and watching from the sidelines.
Management is betting that technology can bridge the gap between pipeline growth and profitability. In May, Nel launched its next-generation PA-Series of pressureless alkaline electrolysers, targeting a 40 to 60 percent reduction in system costs and aiming for 500 megawatts of manufacturing capacity at its Herøya facility by the end of 2026. The company is also pushing system costs for a 25-megawatt plant below $1,450 per kilowatt — an ambition that, if realised, would materially improve its competitive position in the green hydrogen market.
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What Comes Next
Two dates now dominate the calendar. The European Commission is expected to announce the results of its HORIZON-JU-CLEANH2-2026 funding programme in early August, a decision that could provide fresh momentum for Nel's order book given the company and its partners are among 170 applicants for green hydrogen production and storage grants. Then, on October 21, Nel publishes its third-quarter interim report — the first real test of whether the PEM order surge is translating into revenue, and whether the market's patience has a floor.
