Nel ASA's Order Book Is Booming. Its Income Statement Hasn't Noticed Yet
Published on 10/26/2026 at 07:32 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA closed the third quarter of 2026 with two figures that pull in opposite directions: order intake up 339% year on year to 253 million NOK, and revenue from customer contracts down 63% to 112 million NOK. Both numbers are accurate. Both describe the same company. The gap between them is now the central question for anyone holding the stock.
Total revenue and income, including other operating income, came in at 138 million NOK. EBITDA was negative 93 million NOK, and the net loss reached 141 million NOK. The backlog stood at 1.314 billion NOK at quarter-end — a substantial pipeline that has yet to convert into reported sales.
That divergence drew a swift analyst response. On 16 October, AlphaValue/Baader Europe cut its rating from "Buy" to "Add" and, according to media reports, slashed its price target from 3.82 NOK to 2.38 NOK. The firm did not publish a detailed rationale, but the direction of travel is plain: fresh orders are a positive signal, yet they are not the same as revenue booked or losses narrowed.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
A US Order That Won't Help This Year
The clearest illustration of the timing problem arrived two days before the quarterly release. On 13 October, subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US secured an order worth roughly 12 million USD from an unnamed US-based technology company with global operations. The package covers several containerized PEM electrolysers from the MC series, along with associated services. Delivery is expected in 2027.
That order reinforces the commercial outlook while doing nothing for the just-closed quarter — a distinction that matters when reading the headline intake figure. Orders are potential; revenue is realized. Nel's latest report shows plenty of the former and a shrinking amount of the latter.
Cash: A Buffer, Not a Verdict
Liquidity of 1.078 billion NOK at period-end provides a meaningful counterweight to the losses and ranks among the key figures for assessing the balance sheet. What it does not do is establish a funding runway on its own, nor does it prove an operational recovery is under way. Cash position and earnings power need to be evaluated separately.
For investors, the picture splits cleanly in two. The order book — 253 million NOK in new intake, 1.314 billion NOK in backlog — strengthens the business case. The income statement, with its 63% revenue decline and triple-digit million net loss, still carries the weight. A convincing turnaround would have to move beyond signing contracts and show up in both the top line and the bottom line. Until then, Nel remains a company whose order book is filling faster than its financials can follow.
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