Nel ASA's Order Book Is Surging — But the Balance Sheet and the Boardroom Are Telling a Different Story
Published on 08/01/2026 at 08:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The market has a way of forcing investors to weigh two competing narratives at once, and few stocks illustrate that tension as clearly as Nel ASA right now. The Norwegian hydrogen equipment maker just posted a quarter in which order intake more than tripled year over year, yet its shares are trading roughly 47% below the May peak — and the gap between those two realities is where the real story lies.
At the heart of the debate is a question management itself raised on the latest earnings call: does Nel have enough cash to fund the commercial ramp-up of its new pressurized alkaline platform, or will shareholders face another dilutive capital raise? The company's CFO described the liquidity position as solid and said there is no immediate need for new financing — but then added the qualifier that has skeptics sharpening their pencils: the company would take further steps "if needed."
A Quarter of Extremes
The second-quarter numbers paint a picture of a business moving in opposite directions at once. On the demand side, order intake jumped to NOK 230 million, a 224% increase from the same period last year, lifting the backlog to NOK 1.213 billion — 9% higher than the prior quarter. Management called this "encouraging commercial momentum," pointing to two significant purchase orders and the market launch of the new PA-Series platform for pressurized alkaline electrolysis.
Revenue, however, tells a less flattering story. Customer contract revenue fell 12% year over year to NOK 153 million, and the company reported negative EBITDA for the quarter. The net loss came in at NOK 189 million, driven by an operating loss of NOK 205 million.
There is also a caveat buried in the EBITDA figure that investors should not overlook. Adjusted EBITDA only appeared stable relative to last year because the company stripped out a one-time NOK 70 million payment from its settlement with Iwatani. Remove that non-recurring item, and the underlying profitability picture looks considerably weaker than the order surge might suggest.
Where the Orders Are Coming From — And Where They Aren't
Perhaps the most telling detail in the quarter is the concentration of new business. A full 96% of Q2 orders came from the PEM segment. The alkaline business — the higher-margin side where the new PA-Series must prove itself commercially — has yet to show a comparable recovery.
That matters because the bull case for Nel rests heavily on the PA-Series platform, which launched in May 2026 with the goal of meaningfully reducing cost per kilowatt for large-scale hydrogen projects. If the technology gains traction beyond the initial launch partners, optimists argue, the recovery could spread from PEM into alkaline, gradually putting idle capacity back to work. The company ended the quarter with NOK 1.3 billion in cash, which management says is enough to fund operations, continue technology investment, and be ready when the market strengthens.
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There is also a longer-term catalyst in the pipeline: Nel has secured federal and state funding for a planned 4-gigawatt manufacturing facility in Michigan. Should that project move closer to a final investment decision, the company would be well positioned to benefit from North American hydrogen subsidies.
A Leadership Vacuum at the Worst Possible Time
Complicating matters is the departure of CEO Håkon Volldal, who announced his resignation in June. He remains in post until January 2027 — his notice period runs six months — while the search for a successor proceeds in parallel. Chairman Arvid Moss has insisted the strategic direction will not change and that the board remains committed to the existing plan. But a leadership transition in the middle of a fragile commercial phase inevitably raises execution risk, particularly when continuity matters most.
The concern is that Nel will be seen as a "lame duck" operation during the transition, making it harder to secure the large final investment decisions the company needs to utilize capacity at its Herøya facility. That would be a problem even in the best of times; with persistent net losses and cash reserves lower than in previous years, the margin for error is thin.
The Technical Picture
The charts offer little comfort to bulls. The stock trades below all major moving averages, with a relative strength index of 37.8 signaling oversold conditions — though oversold is not the same as a confirmed turnaround. The share price sits roughly 9% below its 200-day average of EUR 0.2142, and remains well under the 50-day level of EUR 0.2359.
The key level to watch is the 52-week low of EUR 0.1731. If that support holds, the growing order book could support a stabilization phase. A break below it, however, could trigger further technical selling pressure.
What to Watch Next
The next concrete test comes with the third-quarter report, due on October 20, 2026. Investors will be looking for three things: whether order intake broadens beyond PEM into alkaline, whether underlying EBITDA trends hold up without one-off items, and whether the new leadership provides clarity on capacity utilization at Herøya.
The bull case is straightforward: if the order momentum continues and the alkaline business starts converting pilot interest into firm contracts, Nel could navigate the downturn without new dilution, supported by a cash reserve management still calls sufficient. The bear case is equally clear: if revenue keeps shrinking, losses persist, and the alkaline order book fails to follow the PEM recovery, the CFO's "if needed" caveat could become the prelude to exactly the kind of capital raise that has diluted shareholders in the past.
For now, with the stock hovering near its 52-week low, the market is signaling that it hasn't decided which scenario is more likely. The third-quarter report — and progress on the CEO search — will go a long way toward settling the question.
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