Nel ASA's Order Book Offers Little Solace as Revenue Collapses 63%
Published on 10/26/2026 at 10:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA's latest quarterly report paints a picture of a company caught between commercial momentum and operational strain. Orders are flowing in, yet the top line has contracted sharply — a divergence that prompted AlphaValue/Baader Europe to cut its rating from "Buy" to "Add" on 16 October, alongside a price target reduction from NOK 3.82 to NOK 2.38, according to media reports. The downgrade captures the central tension facing investors: new business is being won, but converting it into revenue and narrowing losses remains an open question.
A Quarter That Raises More Questions Than It Answers
Revenue from customer contracts came in at NOK 112 million for the third quarter of 2026, a 63% decline year-on-year. Total revenue including other income reached NOK 138 million. The bottom line offered no relief: EBITDA stood at NOK -93 million, and the net loss amounted to NOK 141 million. Against that backdrop, the order book provides a foundation for future business but cannot be equated with revenue already earned.
Order intake during the quarter reached NOK 253 million, while the backlog was valued at NOK 1,314 million. These figures suggest demand exists. Whether Nel can translate that demand into a healthier income statement is a separate matter — and one the latest results leave unresolved.
US Contract Signals Demand, Not Immediate Relief
On 13 October, subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US secured an order worth approximately USD 12 million from an unnamed US-based technology company with global operations. The contract covers multiple containerised PEM electrolysers from the MC series, along with associated services. Delivery is expected in 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The timing matters. The order reinforces the business outlook but offers no near-term offset to the weak quarterly figures. It is a confirmed customer order — distinct from a memorandum of understanding — yet the expected delivery date is not confirmation that shipment has already occurred. The gap between order intake and revenue recognition remains a critical distinction for anyone assessing the equity.
That same distinction applies to the collaboration with Rheinmetall announced roughly two weeks ago. The letter of intent covers exploration of decentralised production of renewable synthetic fuels for defence and critical infrastructure. It is not a confirmed customer order and should not be treated as secured business.
Leadership Transition Adds Another Variable
The organisational framework for executing this pipeline is itself in flux. Morten Holum is set to succeed Håkon Volldal as chief executive no later than 1 May 2027, with a transitional arrangement in place until then. From 1 November 2026, CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen will take temporary charge of the company, while Torbjørn Berg serves as interim finance chief during that period.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For investors, the checklist is straightforward. The US order provides a concrete anchor for future deliveries. The Rheinmetall cooperation remains a business opportunity rather than confirmed revenue. Neither replaces the need to improve a business that is still loss-making. The decisive factor will be execution — how Nel works through firm orders and stabilises operations under new leadership — not the volume of announcements.
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