Nel ASA's Order Book Surges 224% — But the Cash Burn Tells a Different Story
Published on 08/07/2026 at 19:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Norwegian electrolyser maker Nel ASA finds itself in an unusual position: demand for its products is accelerating at a pace rarely seen in the hydrogen sector, yet the income statement keeps deteriorating. Shares traded at EUR 0.1992 on Friday, up 1.53 percent on the day, though the stock remains roughly 10 percent below its 50-day moving average — a gap that underscores just how cautious investors remain about the company's path to profitability.
The Two-Sided Quarter
Nel's second-quarter 2026 report, released on July 15, laid bare the tension between commercial momentum and financial strain. Customer contract revenue came in at NOK 153 million, down 12 percent year-on-year, while EBITDA swung to a loss of NOK 155 million — a figure that includes a NOK 70 million settlement payment from Japanese partner Iwatani. Strip that one-off out, and the adjusted EBITDA was essentially flat against the prior year. The net loss widened to NOK 189 million from NOK 131 million in the same period a year earlier, with the operating loss of NOK 205 million cited as the primary driver.
The segment picture is equally mixed. The PEM electrolyser division generated NOK 97 million in revenue, up 31 percent from the first quarter but down 10 percent year-on-year. The alkaline business saw revenues slip 14 percent against the prior-year quarter, though its EBITDA held broadly steady.
Where the Growth Actually Is
The bright spot — and it is a significant one — sits in the order book. Incoming orders jumped to NOK 230 million in the second quarter, a 224 percent surge year-on-year and a 171 percent leap from the preceding quarter. Roughly 96 percent of that total, or NOK 221 million, came from the PEM segment, which saw its order backlog swell by NOK 147 million in a single quarter to NOK 990 million. The alkaline division, by contrast, contributed just NOK 8 million in new orders, leaving its backlog at NOK 224 million — effectively stagnant.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The overall backlog now stands at NOK 1.213 billion, up 9 percent from the end of the first quarter. That pipeline growth is the core of the bull case: it suggests the demand pickup could translate into higher revenue in coming reporting periods. The bear case is equally straightforward — a growing backlog means little if the company cannot execute profitably, and the deepening EBITDA losses raise questions about margin pressure on exactly those PEM contracts now flowing through the pipeline.
A Cash Buffer — For Now
Liquidity stood at NOK 1.3 billion at quarter-end, down from NOK 1.4 billion in the prior quarter. That decline is modest, and the company retains enough runway to fund its operations without immediate financing pressure. The cash position is reinforced by a EUR 135 million grant from the EU Innovation Fund earmarked for the PA-Series production line.
That new platform — a pressurised alkaline electrolyser system commercially launched in May — sits at the heart of Nel's medium-term strategy. Management claims it cuts floor space requirements by 80 percent and investment costs by 40 to 60 percent compared with existing systems. For a 25-megawatt installation, Nel cites estimated all-in costs of under USD 1,450 per kilowatt. The company expects initial orders for the platform in the coming months.
Capacity Ambitions and the Road Ahead
Nel is simultaneously scaling up manufacturing, targeting 500 megawatts of capacity by the end of 2026 and a gigawatt by 2027. Whether the anticipated PA-Series orders materialise within that window is the single most important variable for the share price over the next year.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The stock trades 15.08 percent above its 52-week low of EUR 0.1731, hit in late February, but remains 45.50 percent below its 52-week high. Market capitalisation sits at roughly EUR 359.81 million. The technical picture — a share price stubbornly below its trend lines — reflects an investor base that is willing to acknowledge the order momentum but not yet convinced it marks a turning point.
The next test arrives on October 21, when Nel reports third-quarter results. Between now and then, the market will be watching two things: whether the order flow from Q2 continues, and whether there are early signs that margins are stabilising. The company's own guidance suggests the former is likely; the latter remains very much an open question.
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