Nel ASA's Order Book Swells as Analysts and Losses Tell a Different Story
Published on 10/23/2026 at 13:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA is accumulating orders faster than it is converting them into revenue, and that gap now sits at the center of the investment case. A fresh downgrade has sharpened the question of whether a healthier backlog is enough to justify confidence in a turnaround, or whether investors should wait for hard evidence in the top line.
AlphaValue/Baader Europe cut its recommendation on the hydrogen specialist from "Buy" to "Add" on October 16, according to media reports, while lowering its price target to NOK 2.38 from NOK 3.82. The more cautious stance landed just over a week after quarterly figures that captured the company's split personality: demand is climbing, but sales and earnings remain under pressure.
Orders climb while revenue retreats
Nel booked order intake of NOK 253 million in the quarter, a jump of 339% year on year, and its order backlog reached NOK 1,314 million — up 34% over the same period a year earlier. That gives the company a deeper pile of work to draw on. What it does not do is establish that an operating recovery is already underway.
Revenue from customer contracts told the opposite story, falling 63% to NOK 112 million. Nel attributed the decline to lower activity in its alkaline business. EBITDA came in at minus NOK 93 million, and the net loss reached NOK 141 million. The stronger order picture thus arrived alongside a sharp drop in sales and a negative operating result — a combination that limits how much weight the intake figure can carry on its own.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The decisive metric remains revenue from customer contracts. Only when it begins to climb again will the distance between the improved order book and the weak running business start to narrow.
A firm US order, a looser Rheinmetall pact
One concrete piece of the backlog came on October 13, when subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US won an order from an unnamed US technology group. The contract covers several containerized PEM electrolysers plus associated services and is worth roughly USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027. That gives the order a tangible delivery horizon, though it does not pin down a specific revenue date or earnings contribution.
A separate arrangement with Rheinmetall, agreed around two weeks ago, carries a different status. The two companies intend to explore options for decentralized production of renewable synthetic fuels. The letter of intent is not a confirmed firm order, and no secured follow-on contract flows from it — it opens a possible project perspective rather than booked business.
For investors, the two announcements therefore sit in different categories: the US contract belongs to committed business, while the Rheinmetall cooperation is a potential opportunity whose commercial realization has yet to be agreed.
Cash cushion, but no substitute for earnings
Nel ended the quarter with a cash position of NOK 1,078 million. That provides financial room to maneuver, yet it does not replace an improvement in results. Relying solely on order growth would be risky while the operating side stays weak, because the positive backlog has to be weighed against continuing losses.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The bear case is a persistent gap between order intake and revenue. New bookings would then support the outlook without sufficiently offsetting the sluggish running business — a demand recovery that never becomes an economic turning point. The bull case rests on Nel steadily converting its backlog into business and winning further orders, which would let the recent sales decline fade in importance. That requires demand to strengthen not just in isolated spots but in the operating numbers themselves.
Leadership handover adds a date to watch
A management transition is unfolding against this mixed backdrop. Morten Holum is slated to succeed Håkon Volldal as group chief executive, taking over no later than May 1, 2027. In the interim, CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen is set to assume the top role from November 1, 2026, with Torbjørn Berg temporarily leading the finance function.
Those dates concern governance first and foremost, not proof of an operating recovery. A change at the top can shape the company's direction, but whether it produces better figures has yet to be demonstrated. Regardless of the personnel sequence, the central task stays the same: Nel must turn its enlarged backlog into business and narrow its losses. The orders supply a foundation — execution, not further project announcements, will determine whether a durable recovery follows.
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