Nel ASA's Order Book Swells to NOK 1.314 Billion, but the Income Statement Has Yet to Catch Up
Published on 10/28/2026 at 15:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA has handed investors a puzzle with two sharply contrasting halves. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist closed the third quarter of 2026 with an order backlog of NOK 1.314 billion — up 34% year on year — and an order intake of NOK 253 million, a jump of 339%. Yet revenue from customer contracts collapsed 63% over the same period to NOK 112 million.
That divergence sits at the heart of the investment case. A fuller order book improves the starting position for future business, but it does nothing to erase the current earnings weakness. Bookings describe newly won business; revenue records what has already been delivered. Confusing the two would be a costly mistake.
A Quarter That Pulls in Two Directions
The top-line decline was not evenly spread. The alkaline segment bore the brunt, with revenue there tumbling 91% to NOK 23 million — a slump Nel itself flagged as a drag on the quarter. The weakness matters for how the rest of the story is read, because the company's most concrete new business is concentrated elsewhere.
On October 13, Nel Hydrogen US booked an order for several containerized PEM electrolysers and associated services from an unnamed global technology group headquartered in the United States. The contract is worth roughly USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027. That is a firm commitment rather than a vague expression of interest — but it is also a future step. Only when Nel works through such orders and revenue begins to climb will the bullish case gain real operational support.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
A letter of intent announced about two weeks ago with Rheinmetall belongs in a different category altogether. It covers a feasibility review of decentralized production of renewable hydrogen and synthetic fuels in Norway. Opportunities could follow, but no binding order exists yet, and it should carry correspondingly less weight than a confirmed purchase.
The Losses Put a Ceiling on Optimism
Against the order momentum stand an EBITDA of minus NOK 93 million and a net loss of NOK 141 million. Those figures cap how much can be read into the positive demand signals. Should revenue stay weak, the thesis of an imminent operating recovery would lack confirmation — and additional orders on their own would not fix the problem.
The bear case, notably, does not require demand to crumble. It is enough that order strength keeps failing to translate into current business. Nor does the US contract automatically signal improvement in the troubled alkaline operations, since it covers PEM solutions. The gap between backlog and revenue is not a contradiction in the numbers; it is two sides of the same corporate development.
A Leadership Handover Adds a Date to Watch
Nel named Morten Holum on October 21 as the successor to Håkon Volldal, with Holum due to take the CEO role no later than May 1, 2027. In the interim, CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen will step in to lead the company from November 1, 2026, while Torbjørn Berg becomes interim finance chief.
The transition may shape how execution unfolds, but it is not itself evidence of better results. What matters for investors remains economic: can Nel convert its stronger order book into revenue and improved earnings? The backlog provides a foundation. The revenue slide and the losses explain why a larger pipeline alone justifies no all-clear — and why the next real test is not the size of new orders but their commercial delivery.
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