Nel ASA's Order Book Triples While Revenue Falls 63% — the Gap a New CEO Must Close
Published on 10/29/2026 at 22:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA has a demand problem in reverse: plenty of buyers, not enough billing. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist published third-quarter 2026 figures on 15 October that lay bare the mismatch, and the numbers point to a company whose commercial pipeline is running well ahead of its income statement.
Revenue from customer contracts fell 63% year on year to NOK 112 million. Nel attributed the decline to lower activity in its alkaline business, where sales collapsed 91% to NOK 23 million. The PEM segment brought in NOK 89 million — nowhere near enough to plug the hole left by alkaline.
A tale of two segments
That split matters more than the headline decline. The alkaline slump did the damage; PEM held up but could not carry the group. What investors are left with is a business generating fresh demand at a rapid clip while its current operations shrink.
Order intake jumped 339% year on year to NOK 253 million, and the order backlog climbed 34% to NOK 1,314 million. Those figures describe demand and future potential. They do not describe money already earned. Bookings and revenue measure different things, and a surge in the former offers no guarantee of a matching improvement in the latter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The bottom line stayed firmly negative: EBITDA of NOK -93 million and a net loss of NOK -141 million. Stronger orders have yet to translate into a positive result.
A US contract and a Rheinmetall handshake
Two developments in recent weeks sketch out the optimistic case. Nel Hydrogen US secured an order worth roughly USD 12 million from an unnamed US technology group for containerised PEM electrolysers and associated services, with delivery scheduled for 2027. That is a concrete hook for future revenue — and its significance lies as much in the delivery timetable as in the order itself. Executed as planned, it would support the argument that improved demand is gradually feeding through to sales.
Separately, Nel agreed roughly two weeks ago to explore decentralised production of renewable synthetic fuels with Rheinmetall, starting in Norway, contributing its electrolyser technology. The distinction here is crucial: the US deal is an order, while the Rheinmetall arrangement is a non-binding declaration of intent. Further steps depend on feasibility studies and mutual agreement. It opens a door without yet delivering a firm contract.
Leadership change lands in the middle of the puzzle
Into this setting comes the management shake-up announced just over a week ago. Morten Holum is to succeed Håkon Volldal as CEO, with a transitional arrangement in the meantime. CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen takes on the CEO role on an interim basis from 1 November 2026, and Holum is due to start no later than 1 May 2027. Torbjørn Berg becomes interim finance chief.
The handover changes nothing about the underlying economics. Nel has more orders, considerably less revenue and mounting losses. A durable operational recovery would only become visible once improved demand shows up in both current business and the result.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What would settle the debate
For the bullish reading to hold, orders must convert into services Nel can book as revenue. The larger backlog is a foundation for future earnings, not proof of a return to profitability. Read alongside the revenue line, a rising backlog is most convincing when current business is growing again; if only the backlog climbs, the improvement remains an expectation rather than a fact.
The bear case rests on the earnings picture. The genuine risk is that the operational upturn lags forecasts — and even additional orders would fail to validate the investment case if revenue stays weak and losses persist. A successful delivery alone does not answer every earnings question either.
The next fixed point on the calendar is the leadership transition. It may give investors a fresh reference point, but it is not operational progress in itself. What matters is whether, under new management, a bigger order book turns into more revenue and eventually a better result. That is the test the recovery thesis has to pass.
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