Nel ASA's PEM Surge Cannot Mask a 91% Alkaline Collapse
Published on 10/25/2026 at 03:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA's third-quarter 2026 report reads like two companies bundled into one ticker. On one side sits a PEM business expanding at a 65% clip; on the other, an alkaline segment whose revenue has all but evaporated, down 91%. The gap between them explains why a 339% jump in order intake has done little to lift the mood around the Norwegian hydrogen specialist.
Revenue from customer contracts came in at NOK 112 million for the quarter, a 63% slide year on year. The PEM advance, while welcome, was nowhere near enough to plug the hole left by alkaline. That mismatch — not a shortage of demand — is the central problem facing the incoming chief executive.
Demand Is Not the Issue
Order intake climbed 339% to NOK 253 million, and the backlog now stands at NOK 1,314 million. Those figures sketch a pipeline with real momentum behind it. Yet a backlog is a promise of future business, not a record of current performance; it tells investors what might arrive, while the revenue line tells them what actually has.
The bottom line keeps that distinction front and centre. EBITDA for the quarter was negative NOK 93 million, and the net loss reached NOK 141 million. Nel closed the period with liquid funds of NOK 1,078 million — a cushion, but not a solution.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
How long the gap between order and invoice can stretch was illustrated roughly two weeks ago, when subsidiary Nel Hydrogen US booked an order worth about USD 12 million from an unnamed American global technology company. The package covers several containerised PEM electrolysers plus associated services, with delivery slated for 2027. It reinforces the PEM story, but it sits apart from the revenue already reported and says nothing about whether alkaline's troubles have been worked through.
A Handover With a Hard Brief
Into this uneven picture steps Morten Holum, named to succeed Håkon Volldal as CEO and due to take the post no later than 1 May 2027. Until then, CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen runs the group on an interim basis from 1 November 2026, with VP Finance Torbjørn Berg filling the interim CFO role.
A change at the top does not by itself alter the operating reality. What matters is whether stronger demand converts into revenue and a lighter loss burden. The new leadership supplies the organisational framework for that effort — not the economic proof of it.
Nel ASA at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The Analysts Are in No Rush
Caution also showed up on the sell side. According to media reports, AlphaValue/Baader Europe cut its rating from "Buy" to "Add" on 16 October, trimming the price target to NOK 2.38 from NOK 3.82.
For investors, the takeaway splits cleanly in two. PEM growth is a genuine operational bright spot. A broader recovery, however, requires that strength to show up at group level. As long as falling overall revenue and losses dominate the picture, a fuller order book counts as progress on demand — not yet confirmation that the business has turned.
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