Nel ASA's PEM Surge Cannot Mask an Alkaline Collapse as Interim Chiefs Take the Reins

Nel ASA has a straightforward brief for its incoming leadership: turn a swelling order book into actual revenue. The Norwegian hydrogen specialist published its third-quarter 2026 figures roughly two weeks ago, and they lay bare a widening gap between brisk new business and a shrinking top line. An announced change at the top provides the organisational backdrop — but what investors are really watching is whether those orders can be converted into a sturdier commercial operation.

Orders Are Not Revenue

Revenue from customer contracts fell 63% year on year to NOK 112 million in the third quarter of 2026. Nel attributed the decline to lower activity in its alkaline segment. Order intake, by contrast, climbed 339% to NOK 253 million, leaving the order backlog at NOK 1.314 million at the close of the quarter.

That divergence sits at the heart of any fair reading of the company. Fresh bookings open up future business prospects, but they are not the same as cash already earned. The backlog therefore offers a different lens on Nel than the income statement does: it describes work still to be delivered, not economic success already achieved. Nor does the surge in demand point to uniformly weak appetite across all business lines — yet it offers no proof that Nel is already working through those orders at sufficient scale.

Two Segments, Two Directions

The split between the divisions is stark. PEM revenue grew 65% to NOK 89 million in the third quarter of 2026, while alkaline revenue collapsed by 91%. Casting an eye only on the expanding PEM business would therefore give a misleading picture of the group as a whole; its progress stands against pronounced weakness elsewhere. Management's operational task is to build on the PEM momentum while offsetting the alkaline shortfall.

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Profitability remains under pressure regardless. Nel reported an EBITDA of NOK -93 million and a net loss of NOK -141 million for the quarter. Cash and cash equivalents stood at NOK 1.078 million at period end — a buffer that must be distinguished from commercial success, since it sits opposite continuing losses and is no substitute for an improved operating result.

A concrete illustration of the lag between order and delivery comes from the previously announced US contract. The American subsidiary secured an order from an unnamed technology company for several containerised PEM electrolysers plus associated services, with delivery expected in 2027. That deal is a building block for future business, not evidence of a recovery already under way.

New Leadership Faces the Operational Test

It is against this mixed backdrop that the leadership change lands. Morten Holum is to succeed Håkon Volldal as CEO, taking over no later than 1 May 2027. Until then a transitional arrangement applies: CFO Kjell Christian Bjørnsen takes on the CEO role on an interim basis from 1 November 2026, while Torbjørn Berg, previously VP Finance, steps in as interim CFO.

A personnel decision on its own does not alter the economic starting position. The yardstick for the incoming leadership remains operational: Nel must work through the larger backlog and simultaneously narrow the considerable gap between orders, revenue and earnings. Whether the stronger new business carries real weight will be judged on exactly that — and for investors, the order revival has to show up in the running business. Only when higher revenue arrives alongside a better earnings trend will hopes of an operational stabilisation rest on firmer ground.

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