Nel ASA Wins the Orders but Not Yet the Revenue, and a New CEO Will Inherit the Difference
Published on 10/28/2026 at 03:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Nel ASA's third-quarter 2026 report card reads like two companies filed it. On one side sits an order book that swelled to NOK 1.314 billion, up 34%, fed by an order intake that surged 339% year on year to NOK 253 million. On the other sits revenue from customer contracts of just NOK 112 million — a 63% collapse — and an EBITDA loss of NOK 93 million. The bottom line was a NOK 141 million deficit.
For anyone weighing the hydrogen specialist's shares, that gap is the whole story. Booked orders and billed revenue are different stages of the same journey, and a fuller backlog answers none of the questions about future profitability on its own. Nor does it tell investors when Nel might convert those orders into cash. A backlog is not a quarterly top line, and a weak revenue quarter does not prove the new business is worthless. What it does mean is that the order momentum has yet to reach the income statement.
A signed order and a handshake are not the same thing
Two announcements from roughly a fortnight ago illustrate how differently new business should be read. The firmer of the pair is a contract awarded to Nel Hydrogen US covering several containerized PEM electrolysers plus associated services for an unnamed global technology company headquartered in the United States. That deal carries a volume of about USD 12 million, with delivery expected in 2027. Because the revenue lands in future periods, it cannot be set against the weak third-quarter figures.
The second is a memorandum of understanding with Rheinmetall. The two firms intend to explore decentralized production of low-carbon synthetic fuels, combining Nel's electrolyser technology with Rheinmetall's Giga-PtX concept and its system-integration expertise. The wording matters: the arrangement is explicitly exploratory and unconfirmed as an order, which places it in an entirely different category from the US contract. It offers a possible additional business avenue, not a booked contribution to any recovery.
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The alkaline drag
Weakness in the alkaline business is also tempering how much the strong order intake can say about the group as a whole. Demand for new equipment, in other words, is running well ahead of what the current business is actually earning.
The bull case requires Nel to translate that healthier pipeline into rising revenue — and then to turn that revenue into better earnings. More business on its own would not yet prove economic strength. Should a revenue revival fail to materialize, the enlarged backlog would still offer longer-term perspective, but its value as evidence of a near-term operational turnaround would be limited. The serious risk is that the revenue slump persists and the bigger order book fails to support results in the meantime, forcing investors to scale back expectations of a quick fix.
Baader trims its rating as the leadership changes hands
AlphaValue/Baader Europe moved in step with the more cautious reading about a fortnight ago, cutting Nel from "Buy" to "Add" and lowering its price target to NOK 2.38 from NOK 3.82. The downgrade does not prove any fresh operational deterioration. It does show that a growing order book and a more restrained valuation can coexist.
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Meanwhile the next fixed date on the calendar is a management handover. From 1 November 2026, finance chief Kjell Christian Bjørnsen is to take the helm on an interim basis, with Torbjørn Berg stepping in as interim CFO. Morten Holum, named last week, is slated to succeed Håkon Volldal as CEO no later than 1 May 2027.
None of that reshuffling alters the yardstick. Under the transitional leadership and under Holum alike, the test is identical: Nel must convert its larger order backlog into economically viable business. The orders provide the raw material for a recovery. The proof of one has yet to be delivered.
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