Nike's Turbulent Stretch: Mbappé's Exit, Index Demotion, and a Make-or-Break Earnings Test
Published on 09/20/2026 at 07:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The past week delivered a trio of unwelcome headlines for Nike, and none arrived at a convenient moment. Kylian Mbappé, the French football icon whose name has been synonymous with the Swoosh for two decades, confirmed on Friday that he is leaving the brand for rival On. The Swiss upstart, which has been steadily eating into Nike's running and lifestyle territory, structured the deal with a mix of cash payments and equity stakes, though neither party disclosed the financial terms.
That symbolic blow landed on the same day Nike's shares closed at EUR 30.94 on the German exchange, a daily decline of 2.4%. Since the start of the year, the stock has shed 41% of its value, drifting far below its 52-week high of EUR 65.59.
Index Exit Adds Structural Pressure
Mbappé's departure was not the only piece of unwelcome news to hit the wire. S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Thursday that Nike will be removed from the S&P 100 before trading opens on September 21, ending an 18-year run in the blue-chip gauge. According to Reuters, the demotion has intensified speculation about whether the company might also lose its long-standing place in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The timing compounds the challenge facing CEO Elliott Hill, who is midway through a sweeping overhaul of the business. Consumer demand has been visibly soft, and competitors — On foremost among them — have been capturing share in the running and lifestyle segments. A controversial advertising misstep at subsidiary Converse added further noise: the brand pulled a "Chuck 70 X" campaign image featuring South Korean singer Karina and issued a public apology after the visual drew sharp criticism for evoking racist Ku Klux Klan imagery. The BBC reported that Converse deleted the image from its platforms.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nike?
UBS Flags Earnings Risk Ahead of October 1 Report
Wall Street's confidence is not being helped by the earnings picture. UBS analyst Jay Sole warned Thursday that Nike's upcoming first-quarter results could miss consensus by USD 0.05 per share. For the following quarter, Sole's model points to earnings between USD 0.31 and USD 0.43 per share, well short of the USD 0.53 consensus. The official figures for the quarter ended in August are due on October 1.
Investor anxiety is likely to build in the interim. Should Sole's projections prove accurate, the skepticism that has weighed on the stock all year could harden further, making the hoped-for operational rebound an even steeper climb.
Legal Clarity, Insider Sales, and a Product Push
One source of uncertainty has at least been resolved. A patent dispute with Lululemon over the Mirror training system, heard before a federal court in Manhattan, was formally dismissed Thursday after both parties agreed to drop the case. Separately, on September 9, several Nike executives sold company shares at USD 37.59 each under pre-arranged trading plans.
To break the downward spiral, Nike is accelerating a refresh of its product lineup, with running and basketball as the focal categories — both areas where rivals have recently gained ground. Ahead of the North American basketball season tipping off on October 20, the company is also rolling out a new fan collection.
Whether those launches can reignite demand will only become clear at retail. A durable recovery, after all, requires more than fresh product — it needs shoppers to respond.
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