Nokia's AI Offensive Broadens: From Arizona Chip Fab to RAN Alliance, Yet Shares Keep Cooling
Published on 08/07/2026 at 22:40 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The strategic picture at Nokia is becoming clearer by the week: this is a company methodically rebuilding itself around the infrastructure demands of the artificial-intelligence boom. The latest piece of that puzzle came into place with a binding agreement to acquire NXP Semiconductors' Chandler fabrication plant in Arizona — a move designed to secure in-house production of indium-phosphide optical chips, a component class that is growing increasingly critical as AI data centers expand. The transaction is structured in two stages: Nokia will initially lease capacity at the facility from the start of 2027, with the full takeover slated for the first quarter of 2029. The logic is straightforward — controlling its own supply chain for a strategically vital component rather than relying on external vendors.
That announcement landed on the same day Nokia unveiled its first commercial AI-RAN platform, developed in partnership with Nvidia and Dell and aimed at future 6G networks. The Finnish network equipment maker also joined forces with Qatar's Ooredoo on the Zankore AI platform for the Asia-Pacific region, an initiative spearheaded by Indonesian operator Indosat alongside Nvidia. The project targets the construction of one gigawatt of capacity for a so-called Nvidia DSX AI Factory. Taken together, these moves sketch out a company that is positioning itself across multiple layers of the AI infrastructure stack — from the chips inside the hardware to the radio access networks that carry the traffic.
A Share Price That Isn't Cooperating
For all the strategic momentum, the market response has been notably muted. In Frankfurt, Nokia shares were trading at €8.07, down 2.11 percent on the day, while the Helsinki listing also drifted lower against a largely flat broader index. The stock's proximity to its 200-day moving average of €8.02 — barely 0.6 percent above it — underscores just how far the shares have retreated from the highs of recent months. On a monthly basis, the decline stands at 21.61 percent, a sharp reversal after a powerful twelve-month rally. At the Nasdaq, the ADR last changed hands at $9.35, having traded in a range between $9.27 and $9.67 during the session.
The valuation debate continues to simmer alongside the share price weakness. With a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 66.4, Nokia trades at a substantial premium to the sector average of around 33.4 and even above what some analysts consider a fair multiple of approximately 47.6. Yet a discounted-cash-flow calculation points to a fair value of $12.52 per share, suggesting the stock is not expensive on that metric. The tension between an elevated earnings multiple and an attractive cash-flow-based valuation reflects how differently the market is pricing Nokia's AI growth prospects.
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The Numbers Behind the Narrative
The operational picture provides some justification for optimism, even if the share price tells a different story. In late July, Bank of America raised its price target for Nokia from $17.00 to $18.50 while reaffirming a buy recommendation, citing an AI-related order intake of €2.8 billion. On the same day, S&P Global Ratings upgraded its credit outlook for Nokia from "stable" to "positive," pointing to expected margin and cash-flow improvements stemming from the AI infrastructure strategy.
The second-quarter results, reported on July 23, offered concrete evidence of progress: currency-adjusted revenue rose 9 percent to €4.82 billion, while comparable operating profit climbed 18 percent to €434 million. Restructuring costs of €390 million, however, pushed the reported operating result to a loss of €50 million. Management guided for full-year comparable operating profit in a range of €2.1 billion to €2.6 billion, with third-quarter revenue growth of 3 to 7 percent quarter-on-quarter and a stronger earnings contribution expected only in the fourth quarter. As part of the restructuring, Nokia reclassified its fixed-wireless-access customer-premises equipment business and enterprise campus-edge solutions as discontinued operations, following an agreement to sell the CPE division to Inseego.
Insider Confidence and Routine Mechanics
Signals from within the company have been supportive. Several executives purchased shares in late July: board member Timo Ihamuotila acquired 60,000 shares, Patrik Hammarén bought 43,293, Pallavi Mahajan took 62,000, and Mikko Hautala added 7,103 shares a few days later. Such insider buying is often read as a vote of confidence in the company's strategic direction.
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On the same day as the Arizona announcement, Nokia also completed a routine capital measure: the transfer of 957,142 treasury shares without consideration to participants in its share-based incentive plans, based on a board resolution from October 2, 2025. Following the transfer, Nokia retains 87,626,482 treasury shares. These transfers are standard practice under long-term compensation programs and carry no operational significance, though they do affect the number of shares outstanding.
A Long Game With Short-Term Friction
The technology partnerships and manufacturing investments paint a coherent picture of a company betting heavily on becoming a foundational supplier to the AI economy. The AI-RAN platform, built on Nvidia's Aerial technology, promises improved spectral efficiency for 5G-Advanced and 6G networks. The Arizona fab secures a critical input. The Zankore partnership opens a path into Asian markets. Whether these strategic bets translate into near-term financial results remains an open question — but the valuation debate is unlikely to fade while the earnings multiple sits so far above the industry norm. For now, the market seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach to a transformation that is ambitious in scope and long in duration.
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