Nokia Wins One New Zealand Mandate as Analyst Upgrade Lifts Shares

Nokia's stock has drawn two separate votes of confidence this week — one from a carrier in the South Pacific, another from the research desk at Refinitiv/Verus. Shares rose 3.9% to €7.72 on Monday, extending a rebound from the slide that followed the company's quarterly report.

The upgrade, which lifted Nokia's depositary receipts from "Hold" to "Buy," lands amid a broader revival of optimism around AI infrastructure spending. Reuters reported Monday on a pick-up in the AI trade after CoreWeave forecast it would turn profitable by 2028. Nokia has its own operational foothold in that theme: management has flagged stronger demand for AI and data-centre networking, with Optical and IP Networks particularly benefiting. Demand in those segments currently outstrips supply, according to the company.

A Customer Win With Strings Attached

On the carrier side, One New Zealand has selected Nokia's Assurance Center and Autonomous Networks Data Suite, a decision reported yesterday. The arrangement extends beyond products to joint research and development work plus consulting services, spanning several service areas.

For investors, the value of that mandate hinges on execution — whether the product selection and accompanying services translate into durable business contributions. The third quarter of 2026 provides the yardstick: comparable net sales of €5.15 billion and comparable operating profit of €605 million. Any additional customer project has to be measured against that base.

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The bull case rests on Nokia stitching products and services together successfully at One New Zealand. The bear case wants harder financial evidence first. Either way, both positions turn on the same operational outcome.

Order Growth Sets the Bar

The third-quarter report, published roughly a week ago, put growth in AI and cloud revenue at 123% year on year, with order intake up 118% to €1.5 billion. Comparable operating profit climbed 35% to €605 million over the same period, beating market expectations.

Those figures give the buy rating an operational foundation — provided Nokia can convert the swollen order book into shipments. Management's own description of supply constraints makes delivery the critical test. For Optical and IP Networks combined, Nokia expects growth of 25–30% next year.

Margin quality matters too. Improved comparable margins were offset by accelerated restructuring and integration costs, which weighed on the reported operating margin. Investors therefore need to watch not just growth but what it costs to generate.

The Fourth Quarter Carries the Weight

Management is guiding for a sequential net sales increase of 20–24% in the final quarter. For the full year, Nokia is targeting comparable operating profit above the midpoint of its confirmed range of €2.1 billion to €2.6 billion. The company reaffirmed that outlook alongside its third-quarter results.

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That makes the year-end sprint the proving ground for the upgrade. Deliver the promised revenue jump and the recovery gains support from Nokia's own business; stumble, and the cautious read — anchored to the confirmed guidance and requiring fresh evidence before crediting further improvement — regains the upper hand.

The next concrete operational marker is the delivery of the joint R&D and consulting work for One New Zealand. Progress there could reinforce confidence in the partnership, so long as it supports deployment of the selected solutions. Alongside the AI and cloud order intake, it gives investors two distinct data points to track: the execution of one carrier deal, and the conversion of a sharply higher order book into revenue and operating profit.

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