Novo Nordisk: A Cheap Multiple, a Fast-Selling Pill, and a Factory Fix Standing Between Them
Published on 10/23/2026 at 07:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk finds itself pulled in two directions at once. On one side sits a valuation that looks modest next to its main rival and a Wegovy tablet already reaching millions of US patients. On the other, consensus forecasts point to shrinking revenue and profit, and a key regulatory file is stuck on manufacturing rather than science.
The most concrete bull case came this week from columnist Eric Fry, who argued for buying the Danish drugmaker. His pitch rests on a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 14 for Novo against 34 for Eli Lilly. Fry sees room for the share price to double, though he is careful to say that outcome is not guaranteed.
Cheapness on its own settles little. A discount can be an opportunity if the business stabilizes, and far less meaningful if earnings keep sliding. That is why the demand evidence matters as much as the multiple.
Five million prescriptions and 76% of a market
Fry points to about 5 million US prescriptions for the Wegovy pill in the first six months, which by his account works out to some 76% of the American oral obesity market. That is the most tangible plank of his thesis: Novo is already treating patients with the tablet, not merely talking about it.
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Prescription volume, however, is not the same as group profit. And the consensus view from Zacks cuts the other way. Analysts expect Novo's revenue to fall about 3% in 2026 versus the prior year, with earnings per share down around 14%.
Two perspectives therefore sit side by side. Fry is betting on a recovery in the stock; the estimates suggest that success for individual products has yet to translate into improvement at the group level.
Denecimig: a factory problem, not a data problem
Separately, Novo confirmed on October 2 that the US approval review for Denecimig is running longer than planned. The company said the FDA raised no deficiencies in the submitted clinical efficacy or safety data. The holdup concerns remediation work at a production site.
That distinction carries weight. The update is not a negative verdict on the trial results. Even so, the targeted US launch in the first half of 2027 remains a company goal, not a granted approval.
Novo also stated explicitly that the delay has no bearing on its financial outlook for 2026. A regulatory obstacle of this kind cannot be read directly as a reason to cut guidance. The two statements need to be kept apart: the unchanged forecast covers the current business, while the launch target reaches beyond it. Confirming the outlook neither completes the review nor finishes the manufacturing fixes.
CagriSema supplies the clinical counterweight
Against that regulatory backdrop, Novo has already published CagriSema data in women with obesity or overweight. Among treatment-adherent participants, the company reported average weight loss of 25.0% after 68 weeks, compared with 3.0% on placebo.
The figures come from post-hoc analyses of the REDEFINE 1 trial and were presented at the annual meeting of the Menopause Society. The caveat matters: these results apply to women who stayed on treatment and should not be read as an unrestricted outcome for every trial participant.
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Novo continues to describe CagriSema as important for profit growth in the years ahead, even as analysts stay skeptical. One analyst expects a particularly rapid US rollout if approval comes. The FDA decision is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026, with Novo projecting a market launch in early 2027. CagriSema is not yet approved in the United States.
What investors can actually mark on the calendar
The next scheduled checkpoint is November 4, when Novo reports results for the first nine months of 2026 — the first announced occasion to judge trading and guidance together.
Until then, the picture resists a single verdict. Positive CagriSema data do nothing to resolve Denecimig's manufacturing issue, and the Wegovy tablet's prescription momentum does not by itself lift group earnings. Fry's case leans on a low multiple and proven demand; a durable re-rating would need a more convincing profit trajectory to emerge from those two. The tablet success supports that hope. The declining consensus estimates, for now, cap how far it can carry.
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