Novo Nordisk's Bull Case Rests on a Cheap Multiple and a Fast-Selling Pill, With CagriSema Still Unproven
Published on 10/23/2026 at 09:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two narratives are running side by side on Novo Nordisk, and they answer entirely different questions. One is a valuation-and-demand story built around the Wegovy pill and a price-to-earnings multiple well below Eli Lilly's. The other is a clinical and regulatory story in which the most encouraging numbers come with an asterisk attached.
Start with the bull case. Columnist Eric Fry came out in favor of Novo Nordisk as an investment yesterday, pairing a relatively low valuation with the commercial traction of the oral Wegovy tablet. The gap he highlights is stark: Novo trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 14, against 34 for Eli Lilly. Fry sees room for the stock to double, though he is careful to say that outcome is not guaranteed.
Demand evidence backs part of that thesis. Fry points to about 5 million US prescriptions for the Wegovy pill in the first six months, which by his account amounts to some 76% of the US oral obesity market. That is the most tangible element of his argument — proof that Novo is already reaching patients with the tablet. Prescription volume, however, is not the same thing as group-level profit growth.
And that is where the consensus view pushes back. According to Zacks estimates, Novo's revenue is expected to fall about 3% in 2026 versus the prior year, with earnings per share seen dropping around 14%. A low multiple can be an opportunity if the business stabilizes; if profit expectations keep sliding, the discount carries less weight. The success of individual products ultimately has to show up in the earnings line.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
CagriSema: encouraging data, limited conclusions
The pipeline story adds another layer of uncertainty. Novo Nordisk maintains that CagriSema matters for earnings growth in the years ahead, while analysts remain skeptical. One analyst expects a particularly rapid US launch if the drug is approved.
Timing expectations are taking shape. The FDA decision is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2026, and Novo expects a market launch in early 2027. That is an expectation, not an approval — CagriSema is not currently cleared for use in the United States.
The clinical picture got a boost from post-hoc analyses of the REDEFINE 1 study. Among women, CagriSema was associated with an average weight loss of 25.0% after 68 weeks, compared with 3.0% on placebo. Novo Nordisk explicitly labeled these analyses exploratory, which caps what they can tell us about the drug still under investigation. The analysis covered 2,309 women, and the company also presented data on pre-, peri- and post-menopausal outcomes along with reductions in waist circumference.
Those findings enrich the clinical picture but should not be conflated with the result for the full study population. Across the entire trial, average weight loss came in at 22.7% — short of the 25% target Novo had been aiming for. According to Reuters, the results could help the company regain ground lost to Eli Lilly in the weight-loss market.
Analysts split on price targets, united in caution
Sell-side moves this week offered little in the way of a unified verdict. ODDO BHF raised its target to DKK 305 from DKK 221 on Tuesday, according to media reports, but kept its rating at "Neutral." The distinction matters: a higher valuation marker and an unchanged recommendation are separate signals, and a target change alone does not amount to an unqualified positive outlook.
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HSBC went the other way on Monday, cutting its target to DKK 280 from DKK 320 while reaffirming its hold rating, media reports said. Both houses adjusted their markers without touching their recommendations, leaving investors without a clear analyst consensus in the stock's favor.
The next hard datapoint
Novo Nordisk has scheduled the release of its first nine months of 2026 results for November 4, 2026. That gives investors a concrete date for assessing operating performance, distinct from the clinical question.
Keeping the two threads apart is essential. The CagriSema readouts speak to the potential of a drug still in development. The upcoming results will speak to how the business is actually performing. A positive trial signal does not answer that second question — and with consensus pointing to declining revenue and profit, it is the one that will decide whether the cheap multiple turns out to be a bargain or a warning.
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