Novo Nordisk's CagriSema Posts Strong Trial Wins While Eli Lilly Tightens Grip on US GLP-1 Market
Published on 09/28/2026 at 12:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk is mounting a two-front campaign to defend its dominance in metabolic therapies: pushing its next-generation drug candidate through late-stage trials while scrambling to halt a steady erosion of US market share at the hands of Eli Lilly.
New clinical data handed the Danish drugmaker a much-needed boost on September 21. In a late-stage study, CagriSema — Novo's combination candidate — delivered an estimated average weight loss of 12.4% in patients with diabetes at the 1-milligram dose, edging out tirzepatide, the rival compound from Eli Lilly. A separate trial in obesity patients showed CagriSema achieving 21% weight reduction versus placebo at the same 1.0-milligram dose. Those results are central to Novo's effort to hold its lead in the weight-loss segment.
Yet the commercial picture in the world's largest pharmaceutical market tells a different story. Eli Lilly captured roughly 61% of the US GLP-1 market in the second quarter, leaving Novo Nordisk with about 39%. The gap is especially stark among older patients: of seniors who began such therapy after Medicare started covering it in July, 70% opted for the rival's products, according to Rick's data. Novo once carved out the GLP-1 category with Wegovy and Ozempic, but Lilly has proven increasingly adept at converting its sales reach with physicians and patients into hard market share.
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The battle is intensifying in oral formulations as well. Novo's Wegovy pill reached shelves several months ahead of Lilly's competing product, Foundayo, yet nearly a third of new US patients starting oral GLP-1 therapies now choose the Lilly option, Reuters reported. CEO Mike Doustdar has flagged the stakes, suggesting tablets could claim a larger market share than injectables by the end of the decade.
To reverse the trend over the longer term, management is pointing to its pipeline. CagriSema is slated for launch in early 2027, and Novo is broadening its technological footprint in parallel. On September 16, the company struck a partnership with tech firm Anthropic to test its Claude models in drug discovery, development workflows, and software creation.
Beyond the lab, Novo extended its partnership with UNICEF on September 22, committing an additional $18 million from 2026 to 2030 for prevention programs across seven countries expected to reach more than 80 million children. On the strategic front, management laid out ambitions at its capital markets day to bring more than five blockbuster medicines to market by 2030, with pipeline revenue targeted to exceed DKK 150 billion by 2035. That forecast rests on internal, risk-adjusted projects and excludes future acquisitions, though leadership stressed the balance sheet leaves room for larger takeovers.
Investors, however, remain unconvinced. The stock closed Friday at EUR 34.05, down 23% since the start of the year. At that level, shares sit 38% below their 52-week high and are still searching for a stable floor following the recent strategic announcements.
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