Novo Nordisk's Legal Win and CagriSema Subgroup Data Cut Different Ways
Published on 10/24/2026 at 21:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk picked up a courtroom victory this week that does little to settle the larger question hanging over its shares: whether a fast-selling obesity pill can offset a profit outlook that is heading in the wrong direction.
A federal judge in Texas on Tuesday refused to revive a lawsuit brought by compounding pharmacy Strive Specialties against Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. The pharmacy had accused both drugmakers of stifling competition in the GLP-1 market and asked the court to set aside an earlier dismissal. Judge denied that request in the Western District of Texas, keeping the case closed, according to Law360.
The procedural nature of the ruling matters. The suit had already been thrown out, and Tuesday's decision simply preserves that outcome rather than resolving a fresh antitrust claim. The alleged competition blockade remains an accusation by the plaintiff, not an established fact.
A Subgroup Signal, Not a Study Result
Separately, Novo Nordisk released a post-hoc analysis of its REDEFINE 1 trial that points to a strong treatment effect in women. In the exploratory look at the efficacy-evaluable population, women on CagriSema averaged 25.0% weight loss after 68 weeks, compared with 3.0% on placebo.
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Breaking the group down by menopausal status produced a spread: 26.7% average weight reduction before menopause, 24.8% during the transition and 23.1% afterward. That gradient is what makes the analysis interesting and, at the same time, limits how far it can be generalized — a standout subgroup figure does not translate directly into an overall result.
Novo Nordisk itself labels the retrospective work exploratory and hypothesis-generating. For investors, the line runs between an encouraging partial finding and a firm conclusion for the full patient population. Reuters framed the data as a possible step toward recovering ground lost to Eli Lilly, while noting that the overall trial result had fallen short of the company's own target. The women's analysis underscores CagriSema's potential without erasing disappointment over the broader study.
The Pill Moves Fast; Estimates Move the Other Way
On the commercial side, oral Wegovy is racking up prescriptions even as forecasts soften. Eric Fry's figures put the drug at roughly 5 million prescriptions in its first six months on the U.S. market, about 76% of the American oral obesity treatment segment. A strong launch, however, is not the same as an improving bottom line.
Zacks projects a revenue decline of about 3% for 2026 and a 14% drop in earnings per share — forecasts, not reported annual results. HSBC, meanwhile, trimmed its price target to DKK 280 from DKK 320 while keeping a hold rating.
The most recent dated analyst move came from BMO Capital's Evan Seigerman, who cut his target to $40 from $47 on October 12 and maintained a Market Perform rating. That call predates the CagriSema release and was not a response to it.
Tuesday's court ruling is a positive with a clearly bounded reach: it blocks one plaintiff from reopening one case. It does not refute the cautious earnings estimates. A genuine re-rating would require the prescription momentum to show up in the financials — and for CagriSema's exploratory findings to hold up under confirmatory scrutiny.
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