Novo Nordisk’s Russian Profit Surprise Masks a Growing Legal Headache
Published on 07/31/2026 at 03:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Novo Nordisk investors are digesting a curious paradox: the Danish drugmaker’s Russian subsidiary has more than quadrupled its profit despite halting Ozempic shipments to the country in 2023. The revelation, which emerged from industry reports on Thursday, runs counter to expectations that the withdrawal of the blockbuster diabetes drug would hammer regional earnings. Analysts suspect that leftover inventory and sales of other diabetes and chronic-care products are bridging the gap, keeping the unit unexpectedly profitable even as the company maintains only a limited presence — local insulin production — in the market.
The Russian earnings surprise, however, is competing for attention with a far more consequential development on the legal front. A federal judge in the United States ruled on July 29 that Novo Nordisk must face a class-action lawsuit brought by investors over the clinical trial data for CagriSema, the company’s experimental combination of cagrilintide and semaglutide. The plaintiffs allege that management painted an overly rosy picture of the REDEFINE-1 study results, failing to disclose that participants were allowed to adjust their doses due to tolerability issues — a detail that could have skewed perceptions of the treatment’s efficacy. The timing is particularly awkward: the ruling lands just days before Novo Nordisk is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on August 5.
The stock itself reflected the cross-currents. Shares closed Thursday at €44.69 in European trading, down 1.13 percent on the day, though they still managed a weekly gain of 4.21 percent. In New York, the drop was steeper, with the ADR losing 2.41 percent to trade at $44.11, retreating from Wednesday’s close of $45.20. The stock remains roughly 19 percent below its 52-week high of $54.86 (or €54.86) reached in January, but it still sits about 8 percent above its 50-day moving average — a sign that the short-term recovery from recent lows remains technically intact, even if Thursday’s session marked a setback.
Wegovy Pill Approval Adds Tailwind Ahead of Earnings
While the lawsuit casts a shadow, Novo Nordisk has been quietly strengthening its obesity arsenal in Europe. The European Commission approved an oral version of Wegovy containing 25 milligrams of semaglutide on July 15, clearing the way for a broader market rollout in the second half of the year. The authorization also covers a new 7.2-milligram dose for the injectable Wegovy pen, which clinical data show can produce weight loss of around 21 percent. The move is a direct response to intensifying competition in the GLP-1 space, particularly from Eli Lilly, and gives physicians more flexibility in tailoring treatments.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Investor attention is now trained on the upcoming quarterly report. For the first quarter, Novo Nordisk posted earnings per share of $1.04, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $0.87. Analysts are expecting a dip to $0.81 per share for the second quarter. Sydbank’s senior analyst projects that the oral Wegovy formulation will contribute roughly half a million dollars in revenue during the period, a modest sum but one that signals early traction for the tablet version. The company has also struck a partnership with Crux to expand Wegovy access through U.S. employer-sponsored insurance plans, a move aimed at accelerating market penetration in the critical American market where Novo Nordisk is locked in a fierce battle with Eli Lilly for GLP-1 dominance.
Institutional Investors Send Mixed Signals
The big money managers are taking divergent views. Sei Investments boosted its Novo Nordisk position by 53.7 percent in the first quarter, now holding 486,550 shares worth $17.88 million. Bank of New York Mellon, by contrast, trimmed its stake by 21.7 percent to 472,874 shares valued at $17.38 million. Analysts covering the New York-listed shares rate the stock a consensus “Hold” with an average price target of $65.56 — implying substantial upside from current levels, though without a clear buy signal.
Legal Front Expands Beyond CagriSema
The courtroom battles don’t end with the CagriSema suit. Novo Nordisk has also filed for a preliminary injunction in New Jersey against Eli Lilly, alleging that its rival’s advertising for Zepbound and Mounjaro contains misleading comparisons. At the same time, a New Jersey court has allowed investors to proceed with a partial lawsuit over share-price losses following disappointing CagriSema study data — the trial had shown a weight loss of 22.7 percent, falling short of the 25 percent the market had expected.
Novo Nordisk at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the stock’s direction hinges on what management says next Wednesday. The combination of a resilient Russian operation, a newly approved oral Wegovy, and mounting legal exposure creates an unusually wide range of outcomes. Investors will be parsing the earnings call for any hints about production capacity for the oral formulations and, perhaps more importantly, how the company plans to navigate the legal headwinds without letting them overshadow a fundamentally strong commercial story.
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