Nubeqa's 58% Risk Reduction and Sunharbo's China Green Light: Bayer's Pipeline Delivers, but Jefferies Stays on the Fence
Published on 10/27/2026 at 12:20 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer's pharmaceutical division had a busy weekend, and the market's verdict was anything but uniform. Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten reaffirmed his "Hold" rating and EUR 46 price target on the German life-sciences group on Sunday, following fresh clinical data on the prostate-cancer drug Darolutamid. Leuchten called the efficacy promising, yet framed the results as confirmation of what was already known rather than a fundamental breakthrough. Shares slipped 1.3% on the day of his note.
A 58% Cut in Metastasis or Death Risk
The data in question came from an interim analysis of the Phase III DASL-HiCaP trial, which Bayer released on Saturday. In prostate-cancer patients at high risk of relapse, NUBEQA — the brand under which Darolutamid is marketed — reduced the risk of metastases or death by a statistically significant 58% compared with placebo. Patients received the drug on top of androgen deprivation therapy and radiotherapy, with a median follow-up of 3.8 years as reported by the company. The effect therefore applies specifically to this combination regimen in the population studied.
Bayer went beyond the relative figure. The four-year metastasis-free survival rate reached 95% in the Nubeqa arm versus 88% in the comparator group, which received placebo alongside ADT and radiotherapy. That gives investors an absolute benchmark to weigh against the headline risk reduction.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
China Clears Sunharbo, a First for the FXIa Class
A second piece of news arrived from China, and it concerned an entirely different patient population. The country's NMPA regulator granted approval to Asundexian under the brand name Sunharbo for reducing stroke risk. The indication covers adults who have suffered a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or a high-risk TIA, and the decision rests on the Phase III OCEANIC-STROKE trial. Bayer describes the compound as the world's first approved FXIa inhibitor.
Two Catalysts, One Share Price
The contrasting market reactions across the two sessions tell their own story. While the stock fell 1.3% on the day Jefferies published its assessment, it had climbed 3.9% to close at EUR 45.65 on the previous day, buoyed by the same pair of announcements. Same news flow, opposite directions — a reminder that the Nubeqa readout is an interim look rather than a final verdict, and that the Asundexian approval, while a genuine milestone, addresses a narrowly defined group of patients in a single market.
What the coming weeks will not deliver is financial clarity. Bayer's next scheduled reporting date is the release of third-quarter 2026 results on 03.11.2026, when the pipeline headlines will finally have to square with the revenue line. Until then, the debate between promising science and commercial substance remains unresolved — and Leuchten's EUR 46 target sits right about where the stock is already trading.
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