Nvidia’s $750 Billion Question: When the Chip Giant Becomes the Bank
Published on 07/30/2026 at 10:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Nvidia’s stock is caught in a strange contradiction. The company’s products are in higher demand than ever, its suppliers are reporting record sales, and its CEO has publicly described the recent share price slide as a mystery. Yet the stock has fallen for seven consecutive sessions, shedding nearly 9.4 percent, and now sits precisely on its 200-day moving average of €166.29 — a technical level that often determines whether a sell-off deepens or reverses.
The disconnect isn’t about chips. It’s about credit.
The $250 Billion Guarantee That Changed the Narrative
At the heart of the market’s anxiety lies a single, staggering number: $250 billion. That’s the size of the financing commitment Nvidia has reportedly made to back OpenAI’s planned 10-gigawatt data center in Ohio. The structure works like this — Nvidia provides capital or credit guarantees so that OpenAI can borrow the money needed to build the facility, which will then be filled with Nvidia’s H200 chips and upcoming Vera-Rubin systems.
Some analysts estimate that Nvidia’s total exposure to such vendor-financing arrangements could reach $750 billion when all customer commitments are tallied. The model is straightforward in theory but unsettling in practice: Nvidia lends its balance sheet to customers so they can buy Nvidia’s own products.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
Critics have drawn comparisons to the vendor-financing schemes of the dot-com era, when equipment suppliers lent money to their own customers to keep sales flowing. The market for credit default swaps on Nvidia’s debt has already reacted — the cost of insuring against a default has doubled to a record 82 basis points.
A Circular Funding Debate Intensifies
The controversy has split the analyst community. Morningstar maintains a price target of $280 and argues that Nvidia remains undervalued, while roughly 85 percent of analysts still rate the stock a buy, with an average target near $303. The bull case rests on the undeniable strength of the underlying business: Lam Research, Advantest, and Teradyne all reported record revenues this week, with Lam beating its revenue guidance by a full $1 billion, driven by unrelenting demand for AI wafer fabrication equipment.
Yet the bear case has gained traction precisely because the numbers are so large. The circular funding model — Nvidia financing the very customers who buy its chips — creates a feedback loop that works brilliantly when growth accelerates but could amplify stress if it ever slows. The question that no one can answer today is whether those customers will ultimately be able to repay their obligations.
Margin Pressure from an Unexpected Source
Even as Nvidia grapples with the financing debate, the company faces a more prosaic challenge: the rising cost of memory. The company has adjusted the memory configuration of its upcoming Vera-Rubin systems because memory now accounts for nearly 29 percent of total system costs. On the consumer side, graphics card prices have already risen by as much as 30 percent.
These cost pressures come alongside reports that a Chinese state-owned enterprise has begun mass-producing chip manufacturing equipment — a development that has rattled the entire semiconductor supply chain, including ASML. The combination of rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty has added another layer of complexity to Nvidia’s outlook.
The Technical Picture Worsens
The stock closed at €166.16 on Wednesday, down 4.08 percent on the day. Over the past week, the decline has accelerated to 8.84 percent, leaving Nvidia more than 17 percent below its 52-week high of €202.50. The relative strength index has dropped to 37.8, approaching oversold territory, while the annualized 30-day volatility has climbed to 36.47 percent — a level that signals deep unease among traders.
The company’s market capitalization remains enormous at €4.18 trillion, but the average analyst price target of €265.92 — implying 60 percent upside — was set during a period when few were scrutinizing Nvidia’s credit exposure as closely as they are today.
Nvidia at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What August 26 Will Reveal
The next major test comes on August 26, when Nvidia reports its fiscal second-quarter results for 2027. Investors will be watching less for chip benchmarks and more for clarity on the financing structure behind OpenAI’s Ohio project and any other customer commitments that may be in the pipeline.
Jensen Huang has called the recent sell-off a puzzle, and in one sense he is right. The operational story remains intact: demand for high-end AI infrastructure continues to outstrip supply, and Nvidia’s core business has never been stronger. But the market is now pricing in a different kind of risk — the risk that Nvidia’s transformation from chip supplier to infrastructure financier has created obligations that could constrain the company if growth rates ever normalize.
For now, the stock sits at a crossroads. The 200-day moving average has historically acted as a floor during bull markets and a ceiling during corrections. Which side Nvidia lands on will depend on whether the company can convince investors that its $750 billion question has a reassuring answer.
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Nvidia Stock: New Analysis - 30 July
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